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The effect of nominal exchange rate volatility on real macroeconomic performance in the CEE countries

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  • Arratibel, Olga
  • Furceri, Davide
  • Martin, Reiner
  • Zdzienicka, Aleksandra

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relation between nominal exchange rate volatility and several macroeconomic variables, namely real output growth, excess credit, foreign direct investment (FDI) and the current account balance, in the Central and Eastern European EU member states. Using panel estimations for the period between 1995 and 2008, we find that lower exchange rate volatility is associated with higher growth, higher stocks of FDI, higher current account deficits, and higher excess credit. At the same time, the recent evidence seems to suggest that following the global financial crisis, "hard peg" countries may have experienced a more severe adjustment process than "floaters". The results are economically and statistically significant and robust.

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  • Arratibel, Olga & Furceri, Davide & Martin, Reiner & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2011. "The effect of nominal exchange rate volatility on real macroeconomic performance in the CEE countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 261-277, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:35:y:2011:i:2:p:261-277
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    Cited by:

    1. Magda Kandil, 2009. "Does Demand Volatility Lower Growth and Raise Inflation? Evidence from the Caribbean," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, , vol. 0(1), pages 45-69, January-J.
    2. repec:eco:journ2:2017-05-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Halmi Mirela, 2012. "The Correlation Between The Exchange Rate And The Direct Foreign Investments," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 809-815, July.
    4. Davide Furceri & Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "The Effect of Episodes of Large Capital Inflows on Domestic Credit," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 864, OECD Publishing.
    5. Sanginabadi, Bahram & Heidari, Hassan, 2012. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth in Iran," MPRA Paper 52406, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Anne Oeking, 2015. "The European periphery during the crisis: fix or float?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 285-290, March.
    7. Mourad Zmami & Ousama Ben-Salha, 2015. "Exchange rate movements and manufacturing employment in Tunisia: Do different categories of firms react similarly?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 137-167, May.
    8. Yuan, Shen & Peng, Shaobing, 2017. "Trends in the economic return on energy use and energy use efficiency in China's crop production," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 836-844.
    9. Ghiba, Nicolae, 2010. "Efecte ale volatilității cursului de schimb asupra exporturilor
      [Effects of exchange rate volatility on exports]
      ," MPRA Paper 28448, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2013. "Current Account Adjustments and Real Exchange Rates in the European Transition Economies," MPRA Paper 48901, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2012. "Macroeconomic Aspects of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in the Central European Countries," MPRA Paper 40910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. repec:eco:journ2:2018-04-10 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:rfe:zbefri:v:36:y:2018:i:1:p:309-336 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2013. "Real Output and Prices Adjustments under Different Exchange Rate Regimes," MPRA Paper 46879, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Furceri, Davide & Guichard, Stéphanie & Rusticelli, Elena, 2012. "The effect of episodes of large capital inflows on domestic credit," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 325-344.
    16. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Soon, Siew-Voon & Boršič, Darja, 2013. "Real interest parity in Central and Eastern European countries: Evidence on integration into EU and the US markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 163-180.
    17. repec:ove:journl:aid:11272 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EU Exchange rate volatility Growth FDI Credit Current account;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy

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