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Capital inflows, exchange market pressure, and credit growth in four transition economies with fixed exchange rates

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  • Hegerty, Scott W.

Abstract

With the transition from planned economic systems to membership in the European Union, capital inflows and domestic credit have expanded tremendously in Central and Eastern Europe. Four of these countries--Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Bulgaria--maintain fixed exchange-rate regimes, which may face pressure because of rapid credit growth or during a slowdown. This study uses a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) approach to assess the contribution of capital inflows to exchange market pressure in these four countries, as well as to the growth of domestic credit. Both FDI and non-FDI flows are shown to feed credit growth in Bulgaria, but not the Baltics. Relatively volatile flows, particularly non-FDI inflows, reduce EMP in three of the four countries.

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  • Hegerty, Scott W., 2009. "Capital inflows, exchange market pressure, and credit growth in four transition economies with fixed exchange rates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 155-167, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:33:y:2009:i:2:p:155-167
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    5. HEGERTY, Scott W., 2014. "Exchange Market Pressure And Regional Price Spillovers In Russia, Ukraine, And Belarus," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(2).
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    8. Hall, Stephen G. & Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2013. "Measuring currency pressures: The cases of the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, and the UK pound," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-20.
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    11. Sook-Rei Tan & Wei-Siang Wang & Wai-Mun Chia, 2021. "International Capital Flows and Extreme Exchange Market Pressure: Evidence from Emerging Market Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 479-506, July.
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    14. Ratnasari, Anggraeni & Widodo, Tri, 2017. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policies in ASEAN5," MPRA Paper 81543, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Klaassen, Franc & Jager, Henk, 2011. "Definition-consistent measurement of exchange market pressure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 74-95, February.
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