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Exchange Market Pressure in Central European Countries from the Eurozone Membership Perspective

  • Stavarek Daniel

    (School of Business, Administration in Karviná, Department of Finance, Silesian University in Opava, Univerzitní nám. 1934/3, 733 40 Karviná, Czech Republic)

This paper estimates the exchange market pressure (EMP) in four Central European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) over the period 1993-2006. Therefore, it is one of very few studies focused on this region and the very first paper applying concurrently model-dependent as well as model-independent approaches to EMP estimation to these countries. The results obtained suggest that the approaches lead to inconsistent findings. They often differ in identification of the principal development trends, as well as the magnitude and direction of the pressure. The paper provides evidence that a shift in the exchange rate regime towards the quasi-fixed ERM II should not stimulate EMP growth. However, it is highly probable that some episodes of the excessive EMP will make the fulfillment of the exchange rate stability criterion more difficult in all of the countries analyzed.

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File URL: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jeb.2008.3.issue-2/v10033-008-0010-z/v10033-008-0010-z.xml?format=INT
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Article provided by De Gruyter Open in its journal South East European Journal of Economics and Business.

Volume (Year): 3 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (November)
Pages: 7-18

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Handle: RePEc:vrs:seejeb:v:3:y:2008:i:2:p:7-18:n:1
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  1. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1995. "Speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates: an empirical exploration with special reference to the European Monetary System," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," NBER Working Papers 5576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Weymark, Diana N, 1997. "Measuring the degree of exchange market intervention in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 55-79, February.
  4. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
  5. Don E. Roper & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1980. "Optimal Exchange Market Intervention in a Simple Stochastic Macro Model," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 13(2), pages 296-309, May.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Pentecost, Eric J. & Van Hooydonk, Charlotte & Van Poeck, Andre, 2001. "Measuring and estimating exchange market pressure in the EU," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 401-418, June.
  8. Weymark, Diana N, 1997. "Measuring Exchange Market Pressure and Intervention in Interdependent Economies: A Two-Country Model," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 72-82, February.
  9. Weymark, Diana N., 1995. "Estimating exchange market pressure and the degree of exchange market intervention for Canada," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3-4), pages 273-295, November.
  10. Evan Tanner, 2002. "Exchange Market Pressure, Currency Crises, and Monetary Policy; Additional Evidence From Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 02/14, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Weymark, Diana N, 1998. "A General Approach to Measuring Exchange Market Pressure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(1), pages 106-21, January.
  12. André Van Poeck & Jacques Vanneste & Maret Veiner, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Exchange Market Pressure in the New EU Member States," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45, pages 459-485, 06.
  13. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
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