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Exchange Market Pressure in Central European Countries from the Eurozone Membership Perspective

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  • Stavarek, Daniel

Abstract

This paper estimates the exchange market pressure (EMP) in four Central European countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) over the period 1993-2006. Therefore, it is one of very few studies focused on this region and the very first paper applying concurrently model-dependent as well as model-independent approach to the EMP estimation on these countries. The results obtained suggest that the approaches lead to inconsistent findings. They often differ in identification of the principal development trends as well as magnitude and direction of the pressure. The paper provides evidence that a shift in the exchange rate regime towards the quasi-fixed ERM II should not stimulate EMP to grow. However, it is highly probable that some episodes of the excessive EMP will make the fulfillment of the exchange rate stability criterion more difficult in all countries analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • Stavarek, Daniel, 2008. "Exchange Market Pressure in Central European Countries from the Eurozone Membership Perspective," MPRA Paper 12079, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:12079
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1994. "Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System," NBER Working Papers 4898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Stavarek, Daniel & Dohnal, Marek, 2009. "Exchange Market Pressure in Central Europe: An Application of the Girton-Roper Model," MPRA Paper 15744, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Rajmund MIRDALA, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices In The Central European Countries," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(3(9)_Fall).
    3. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2009. "Interest rate transmission mechanism of the monetary policy in the selected EMU candidate countries (SVAR approach)," MPRA Paper 14072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Mirdala, Rajmund, 2009. "Shocking aspects of monetary integration (SVAR approach)," MPRA Paper 17057, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Market Pressure; Model-dependent Approach; Model-independent Approach; European Union; Euro-candidate Countries;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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