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International Capital Flow Pressures

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  • Linda S. Goldberg
  • Signe Krogstrup

Abstract

Pressures on currencies manifest in exchange rate adjustments and international capital flows, and can also be offset by policy responses. This paper presents a theory-based measure of capital flow pressures, a new Exchange Market Pressure index, which combines pressures observed in exchange rate adjustments, official foreign exchange intervention and monetary policy changes. We use the index to identify so called safe-haven and risk-on status currencies and investigate the drivers of this status, showing the importance of country net foreign asset positions, size, and capital account openness. We also re-assess the contribution of the global financial factor in international capital flow pressures. The global factor explains a larger share of pressures on currencies measured using the EMP compared with using capital flow quantities. However, this global factor share is strongly dominated by idiosyncratic variation and only episodically large.

Suggested Citation

  • Linda S. Goldberg & Signe Krogstrup, 2018. "International Capital Flow Pressures," NBER Working Papers 24286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24286
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Avdjiev & Valentina Bruno & Catherine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 151-173, March.
    2. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2020. "Revisiting Exchange Rate Rules," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(3), pages 693-719, September.
    3. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Global Flight-to-Safety Shocks," MPRA Paper 103501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Avdjiev, Stefan & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Goldberg, Linda S. & Schiaffi, Stefano, 2020. "The shifting drivers of global liquidity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    5. Willem Thorbecke & Nimesh Salike, 2020. "Export Sophistication and Trade Elasticities," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 2(1), pages 7-26, April.
    6. McQuade, Peter & Schmitz, Martin, 2019. "America First? A US-centric view of global capital flows," Working Paper Series 2238, European Central Bank.
    7. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2020. "Oil price drivers, geopolitical uncertainty and oil exporters' currencies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    8. Jacob M. Meyer & Nicholas R. Jenkins, 2019. "Interest Groups, Policy Responses to Global Shocks, and the Relative Likelihood of Currency Crashes Versus Banking Crises," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 1-56, June.
    9. Martijn Boermans & John Burger, 2020. "Global and local currency effects on euro area investment in emerging market bonds," DNB Working Papers 676, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Felix Kapfhammer & Vegard H. Larsen & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2020. "Climate Risk and Commodity Currencies," CESifo Working Paper Series 8788, CESifo.
    11. Mary Amiti & Patrick McGuire & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "International Bank Flows and the Global Financial Cycle," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 61-108, March.
    12. Thorbecke, Willem & Kato, Atsuyuki, 2018. "Exchange rates and the Swiss economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1182-1199.
    13. Yuko Hashimoto & Signe Krogstrup, 2019. "Capital Flows: The Role of Bank and Nonbank Balance Sheets," IMF Working Papers 2019/085, International Monetary Fund.

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    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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