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International Capital Flow Pressures

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  • Linda S. Goldberg
  • Signe Krogstrup

Abstract

Pressures on currencies manifest in exchange rate adjustments and international capital flows, and can also be offset by policy responses. This paper presents a theory-based measure of capital flow pressures, a new Exchange Market Pressure index, which combines pressures observed in exchange rate adjustments, official foreign exchange intervention and monetary policy changes. We use the index to identify so called safe-haven and risk-on status currencies and investigate the drivers of this status, showing the importance of country net foreign asset positions, size, and capital account openness. We also re-assess the contribution of the global financial factor in international capital flow pressures. The global factor explains a larger share of pressures on currencies measured using the EMP compared with using capital flow quantities. However, this global factor share is strongly dominated by idiosyncratic variation and only episodically large.

Suggested Citation

  • Linda S. Goldberg & Signe Krogstrup, 2018. "International Capital Flow Pressures," NBER Working Papers 24286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24286
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Avdjiev & Valentina Bruno & Catherine Koch & Hyun Song Shin, 2019. "The Dollar Exchange Rate as a Global Risk Factor: Evidence from Investment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 151-173, March.
    2. Willem THORBECKE & Nimesh SALIKE, 2018. "Export Sophistication and Trade Elasticities," Discussion papers 18061, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. McQuade, Peter & Schmitz, Martin, 2019. "America First? A US-centric view of global capital flows," Working Paper Series 2238, European Central Bank.
    4. repec:pal:imfecr:v:67:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1057_s41308-018-0072-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Thorbecke, Willem & Kato, Atsuyuki, 2018. "Exchange rates and the Swiss economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1182-1199.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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