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The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis

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  • Mr. Dennis P Botman
  • Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho
  • Mr. Waikei R Lam

Abstract

During risk-off episodes, the yen is a safe haven currency and on average appreciates against the U.S. dollar. We investigate the proximate causes of yen risk-off appreciations. We find that neither capital inflows nor expectations of the future monetary policy stance can explain the yen’s safe haven behavior. In contrast, we find evidence that changes in market participants’ risk perceptions trigger derivatives trading, which in turn lead to changes in the spot exchange rate without capital flows. Specifically, we find that risk-off episodes coincide with forward hedging and reduced net short positions or a buildup of net long positions in yen. These empirical findings suggest that offshore and complex financial transactions should be part of spillover analyses and that the effectiveness of capital flow management measures or monetary policy coordination to address excessive exchange rate volatility might be limited in certain cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Dennis P Botman & Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho & Mr. Waikei R Lam, 2013. "The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2013/228, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/228
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Rogoff, Kenneth S. & Tashiro, Takeshi, 2015. "Japan’s exorbitant privilege," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 43-61.
    2. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2016. "Intra-safe haven currency behavior during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 49-64.
    3. Willem Thorbecke & Nimesh Salike, 2020. "Export Sophistication and Trade Elasticities," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 2(1), pages 7-26, April.
    4. Haas Ornelas, José Renato, 2019. "Expected currency returns and volatility risk premia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 206-234.
    5. Tachibana, Minoru, 2018. "Safe-haven and hedge currencies for the US, UK, and Euro area stock markets: A copula-based approach," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 82-96.
    6. Hassan, M. Kabir & Djajadikerta, Hadrian Geri & Choudhury, Tonmoy & Kamran, Muhammad, 2022. "Safe havens in Islamic financial markets: COVID-19 versus GFC," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Janani Sri S. & Parthajit Kayal & G. Balasubramanian, 2022. "Can Equity be Safe-haven for Investment?," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(1), pages 32-63, March.
    8. Mr. Fei Han & Mr. Niklas J Westelius, 2019. "Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations," IMF Working Papers 2019/136, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Adrian Jäggi & Martin Schlegel & Attilio Zanetti, 2019. "Macroeconomic surprises, market environment, and safe-haven currencies," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 155(1), pages 1-21, December.
    10. Christophe Boucher & Sessi Tokpavi, 2019. "Stocks and Bonds: Flight-to-Safety for Ever?," Post-Print hal-02067096, HAL.
    11. Nader Trabelsi, 2018. "Are There Any Volatility Spill-Over Effects among Cryptocurrencies and Widely Traded Asset Classes?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, October.
    12. Christophe Boucher & Sessi Tokpavi, 2018. "Stocks and Bonds: Flight-to-Safety for Ever?," Working Papers hal-04141705, HAL.
    13. Beirne, John & Sugandi, Eric, 2023. "Risk-off shocks and spillovers in safe havens," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Leroi RAPUTSOANE, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rates Comovements and the South African Currency," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 57-68, March.
    15. Pami Dua & Ritu Suri, 2019. "Interlinkages Between USD–INR, EUR–INR, GBP–INR and JPY–INR Exchange Rate Markets and the Impact of RBI Intervention," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 18(1_suppl), pages 102-136, April.
    16. Pınar Yeşin, 2017. "Capital Flows and the Swiss Franc," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(4), pages 403-436, October.
    17. Sensoy, Ahmet, 2015. "An alternative way to track the hot money in turbulent times," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 215-220.
    18. Katerina Rigana & Ernst-Jan Camiel Wit & Samantha Cook, 2021. "Using Network-based Causal Inference to Detect the Sources of Contagion in the Currency Market," Papers 2112.13127, arXiv.org.
    19. Linda S. Goldberg & Signe Krogstrup, 2018. "International Capital Flow Pressures," NBER Working Papers 24286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. MASUJIMA Yuki, 2017. "Safe Haven Currency and Market Uncertainty: Yen, renminbi, dollar, and alternatives," Discussion papers 17048, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    21. Sessi Tokpavi & Christophe Boucher, 2018. "Stocks and Bonds: Flight-to-Safety for Ever?," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-39, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    22. MASUJIMA Yuki, 2019. "Time-Variant Safe-Haven Currency Status and Determinants," Discussion papers 19048, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    23. Moses Kangogo & Mardi Dungey & Vladimir Volkov, 2023. "Changing vulnerability in Asia: contagion and spillovers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2315-2355, May.
    24. Hwee K. Chow, 2021. "Connectedness of Asia Pacific forex markets: China's growing influence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3807-3818, July.
    25. Faek Menla Ali & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2017. "Portfolio flows and the US dollar–yen exchange rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 179-189, February.

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