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Risk-Off Episodes and Swiss Franc Appreciation: The Role of Capital Flows

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  • Irineu Carvalho Filho

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="geer12063-abs-0001"> During episodes of increased global risk aversion, or risk-off episodes, safe haven currencies such as the Swiss franc tend to appreciate. The immediate impact of a risk-off shock is an increase in net private inflows to Switzerland, mostly driven by a reduction in Swiss residents’ net purchases of foreign debt securities and reduced foreign exposure by Swiss banks. Given that the bulk of capital movements related to risk-off episodes is driven by decisions of Swiss residents, capital flow management policies that discriminate based on the residency of the investor (capital controls) are not likely to be effective at reducing the impact of risk-off episodes. However, prudential policies that limit leveraging or foreign exposure by Swiss banks may diminish the volatility of capital flows during risk-off episodes.

Suggested Citation

  • Irineu Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Risk-Off Episodes and Swiss Franc Appreciation: The Role of Capital Flows," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(4), pages 439-463, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:germec:v:16:y:2015:i:4:p:439-463
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/geer.2015.16.issue-4
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    Cited by:

    1. De Bock, Reinout & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2015. "The behavior of currencies during risk-off episodes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 218-234.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Gustavo Adler & Irineu de Carvalho Filho, 2015. "Can Foreign Exchange Intervention Stem Exchange Rate Pressures from Global Capital Flow Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 21427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Christophe Boucher & Sessi Tokpavi, 2019. "Stocks and Bonds: Flight-to-Safety for Ever?," Post-Print hal-02067096, HAL.
    4. Christophe Boucher & Sessi Tokpavi, 2018. "Stocks and Bonds: Flight-to-Safety for Ever?," Working Papers hal-04141705, HAL.
    5. Goldberg, Linda S. & Krogstrup, Signe, 2023. "International capital flow pressures and global factors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    6. Fabian Fink & Lukas Frei & Oliver Gloede, 2020. "Short-term determinants of bilateral exchange rates: A decomposition model for the Swiss franc," Working Papers 2020-21, Swiss National Bank.
    7. Ansgar Belke & Thomas Osowski, 2019. "International Effects Of Euro Area Versus U.S. Policy Uncertainty: A Favar Approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(1), pages 453-481, January.
    8. Pınar Yeşin, 2017. "Capital Flows and the Swiss Franc," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 153(4), pages 403-436, October.
    9. Linda S. Goldberg & Signe Krogstrup, 2018. "International Capital Flow Pressures," NBER Working Papers 24286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Yuki MASUJIMA, 2017. "Safe Haven Currency and Market Uncertainty: Yen, renminbi, dollar, and alternatives," Discussion papers 17048, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    11. Yuki MASUJIMA & Yuki SATO, 2024. "Drivers of Post-pandemic Currency Movement: Recurring impacts of sovereign risks and oil prices," Discussion papers 24054, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    12. Sessi Tokpavi & Christophe Boucher, 2018. "Stocks and Bonds: Flight-to-Safety for Ever?," EconomiX Working Papers 2018-39, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    13. Mr. Dennis P Botman & Mr. Irineu E de Carvalho Filho & Mr. Waikei Raphael Lam, 2013. "The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency: A Forensic Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2013/228, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Yuki MASUJIMA, 2019. "Time-Variant Safe-Haven Currency Status and Determinants," Discussion papers 19048, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. Fink, Fabian & Frei, Lukas & Gloede, Oliver, 2022. "Global risk sentiment and the Swiss franc: A time-varying daily factor decomposition model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    16. Hasler, Nicole, 2016. "US International Equity Investment and Economic Fundamentals," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145840, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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