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Do Real Exchange Rate Appreciations Matter for Growth?

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Abstract

While the impact of exchange rate changes on economic growth has long been an issue of key importance in international macroeconomics, it has received renewed attention in recent years, owing to weaker growth rates and the debate on “currency wars”. However, in spite of its prevalence in the policy debate, the connection between real exchange rates and growth remains an unsettled question in the academic literature. We fill this gap by providing an empirical assessment based on a broad sample of emerging and advanced economies. We assess the impact of appreciations, productivity booms and capital flow surges using a propensity-score matching approach to address causality issues. We show that appreciations associated with higher productivity have a larger impact on growth than appreciations associated with capital inflows. Furthermore, the appreciation per se tends to have a negative impact on growth. We provide a simple theoretical model that delivers the contrasted growth-appreciation pattern depending on the underlying shock. The model also implies adverse effects of shocks to international capital flows, so concerns about an appreciation are not inconsistent with concerns about a depreciation. The presence of an externality through firms’ destruction leads to inefficient allocations. Nonetheless, addressing them does not require a dampening of exchange rate movements.

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  • Matthieu Bussière & Claude Lopez & Cédric Tille, 2014. "Do Real Exchange Rate Appreciations Matter for Growth?," IHEID Working Papers 06-2014, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp06-2014
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    Cited by:

    1. Alfaro, Laura & Cunat, Alejandro & Fadinger, Harald & Yanping, Liu, 2017. "The real exchange rate, innovation and productivity," Working Papers 17-04, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    2. Erick Lahura & Marco Vega, 2013. "Asymmetric effects of FOREX intervention using intraday data: evidence from Peru," BIS Working Papers 430, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Pedro Bação & António Portugal Duarte & Diana Machado, 2016. "Exchange Rates, the Competitiveness of Nations and Unemployment," GEMF Working Papers 2016-14, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    4. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2016. "Dutch Disease, Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignments and their effect on GDP growth in the EU," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 26, Bank of Lithuania.
    5. Mariarosaria Comunale, 2016. "Dutch Disease, Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignments and Their Effect on GDP Growh in the EU," CEIS Research Paper 379, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 23 May 2016.
    6. Bernd Schwaab & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2017. "Global Credit Risk: World, Country and Industry Factors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 296-317, March.
    7. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Marc Pourroy, 2017. "IT Countries: A Breed Apart? the case of Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working Papers 1728, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    8. Dennis P Botman & Irineu E de Carvalho Filho & Waikei R Lam, 2013. "The Curious Case of the Yen as a Safe Haven Currency; A Forensic Analysis," IMF Working Papers 13/228, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Erdal Özmen, 2016. "Real Exchange Rates and Growth," ERC Working Papers 1609, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Sep 2016.
    10. Hyunbae Chun & Jung Hur & Young Gak Kim & Hyeog Ug Kwon, 2017. "Cross-border Vertical Integration and Intra-firm Trade: New Evidence from Korean and Japanese Firm-level Data," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, pages 126-139.
    11. Philip Lane, 2013. "International Capital Flows and Domestic Financial Conditions: Lessons for Emerging Asia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp438, IIIS.
    12. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Mileva, Elitza & Stracca, Livio, 2017. "The real exchange rate and economic growth: Revisiting the case using external instruments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 386-398.
    13. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Ravasan, Farshad R & Wörgötter, Andreas, 2013. "The origins of the German current account surplus: Unbalanced productivity growth and structural change," CEPR Discussion Papers 9527, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    Keywords

    exchange rate; currency crises; endaka; international trade; international capital flows; lending booms; small open economy macroeconomics;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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