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What drives financial crises in emerging markets?

  • Tuomas Komulainen

    (Bank of Finland Institute for Economies in Transition BOFIT)

  • )

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Johanna Lukkarila

    (University of Helsinki)

Registered author(s):

    The study examines the reasons for financial crises in 31 emerging market countries during 1980-2001. It estimates a probit model using 23 macroeconomic and financial sector variables. Traditional variables such as unemployment and inflation, as well as several indicators of indebtedness such as private sector liabilities and the foreign liabilities of banks explain currency crises rather well, and it appears currency crises occur in tandem with banking crises. Indeed, in emerging market countries vulnerability to crisis is exacerbated by situations involving large liabilities that permit sudden capital outflows. Increases in indebtedness followed the liberalisation of capital flows and domestic financial sectors.

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    File URL: http://128.118.178.162/eps/mac/papers/0304/0304010.pdf
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    Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0304010.

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    Length: 30 pages
    Date of creation: 28 Apr 2003
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0304010
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; prepared on IBM PC ; to print on HP/PostScript/Franciscan monk; pages: 30 ; figures: included
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://128.118.178.162

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    1. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett & Assaf Razin, 1998. "Current Account Reversals and Currency Crises: Empirical Regularities," NBER Working Papers 6620, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jeffrey J. Frankel and Andrew K. Rose., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C96-062, University of California at Berkeley.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    4. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    5. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Enrica Detragiache & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, 1999. "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility; A Multivariate Logit Approach," IMF Working Papers 99/147, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 1999. "Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 603-617, August.
    8. W. R. M. Perraudin & Manmohan S. Kumar & Uma Moorthy, 2002. "Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes," IMF Working Papers 02/7, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises; The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August.
    11. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1997. "The Determinants of Banking Crises; Evidence From Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/106, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Blanco, Herminio & Garber, Peter M, 1986. "Recurrent Devaluation and Speculative Attacks on the Mexican Peso," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(1), pages 148-66, February.
    13. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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