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Leading indicators of balance-of-payments crises: a partial review

  • Michael Chui
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    This paper reviews the theory of balance-of-payments crises, and its implications for identifying potential leading indicators of crises. It discusses and evaluates three different empirical approaches to balance-of-payments crises: the signalling, discrete-choice, and structural approaches. Despite claims of success in predicting currency crises, we note some serious theoretical and empirical qualifications which throw these claims into question. Nevertheless, we conclude that a range of indicators supported by theory may still be useful for policy-makers interested in preventing financial instability.

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    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/2002/wp171.pdf
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    Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 171.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2002
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    Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:171
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    1. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
    2. W. R. M. Perraudin & Manmohan S. Kumar & Uma Moorthy, 2002. "Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes," IMF Working Papers 02/7, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1.
    6. Stephen W. Salant & Dale W. Henderson, 1976. "Market anticipations, government policy, and the price of gold," International Finance Discussion Papers 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Ozkan, F Gulcin & Sutherland, Alan, 1995. "Policy Measures to Avoid a Currency Crisis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(429), pages 510-19, March.
    8. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper tigers? A model of the Asian crisis," Research Paper 9822, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Christian B. Mulder & Matthieu Bussière, 1999. "External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies; How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 99/88, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Las crisis gemelas: las causas de los problemas bancarios y de balanza de pagos
      [The twin crises: Te causes of banking and balance of payments problems]
      ," MPRA Paper 13842, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    12. Dagsvik, John & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1994. "Was the Great Depression a low-level equilibrium?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 1711-1729, December.
    13. Blackburn, Keith & Sola, Martin, 1993. " Speculative Currency Attacks and Balance of Payments Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 119-44, June.
    14. Hali J. Edison, 2000. "Do indicators of financial crises work? an evaluation of an early warning system," International Finance Discussion Papers 675, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Spillovers Through Banking Centers; A Panel Data Analysis," IMF Working Papers 00/88, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Miller, V., 1998. "Domestic bank runs and speculative attacks on foreign currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 331-338, April.
    17. Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Interest Rate Volatility, Capital Controls, and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 6756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. McKinnon, Ronald I. & Pill, Huw, 1998. "International Overborrowing: A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1267-1282, July.
    19. R. I. McKinnon, 2000. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Life After Death?," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(1), pages 31-82, 02.
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