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Fundamental pitfalls of exchange market pressure-based approaches to identification of currency crises


  • Pontines, Victor
  • Siregar, Reza


This study seeks to demonstrate that the identification of crisis episodes based on commonly applied exchange market pressure (EMP) indices, namely, Eichengreen, Rose and Wyplosz [Eichengreen, B., Rose, A., and Wyplosz, C., 1995, Exchange Market Mayhem: The Antecedents and Aftermaths of Speculative Attacks, Economic Policy 21 (October), 249-312.], Sachs, Tornell and Velasco [Sachs, J.D., Tornel, A., and Velasco, A., 1996, Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons From 1995, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity 1, 147-215.], and Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart [Kaminsky, G., Lizondo, S., and Reinhart, C., 1998, Leading Indicators of Currency Crises, IMF Staff Paper 45, 1 (March), 1-48.] are highly sensitive to the choice of: a) the weighting scheme for each component of the EMP index; and b) the statistical parametric assumption used in the constructions of crisis thresholds. To highlight further some of the potential consequences of these two pitfalls in identifying crisis episodes, this paper employs a number of possible alternative approaches to measure the exchange market pressure.

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  • Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2008. "Fundamental pitfalls of exchange market pressure-based approaches to identification of currency crises," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-365.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:17:y:2008:i:3:p:345-365

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Ramon Moreno, 1995. "Macroeconomic behavior during periods of speculative pressure or realignment: evidence from Pacific Basin economies," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    4. Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    6. Andrew Berg & Eduardo Borensztein & Catherine Pattillo, 2005. "Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(3), pages 1-5.
    7. Huisman, Ronald, et al, 2001. "Tail-Index Estimates in Small Samples," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 208-216, April.
    8. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    11. Michael Chui, 2002. "Leading indicators of balance-of-payments crises: a partial review," Bank of England working papers 171, Bank of England.
    12. Hamilton, James D., 1988. "Rational-expectations econometric analysis of changes in regime : An investigation of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 385-423.
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    14. Pozo, Susan & Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina, 2003. "Statistical distributions and the identification of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 591-609, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hsiao, Yu-Ming & Pan, Sheng-Chieh & Wu, Po-Chin, 2012. "Does the central bank's intervention benefit trade balance? Empirical evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 130-139.
    2. Patnaik, Ila & Felman, Joshua & Shah, Ajay, 2017. "An exchange market pressure measure for cross country analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 62-77.
    3. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas A., 2010. "Balance of payments accounting and exchange rate dynamics," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 46-63, January.
    5. Daniel Stavárek, 2011. "Comparison of Exchange Market Pressure Across the New Part of the European Union," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 21-39, July.
    6. HEGERTY, Scott W., 2014. "Exchange Market Pressure And Regional Price Spillovers In Russia, Ukraine, And Belarus," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(2).
    7. Fabio Filipozzi & Kersti Harkmann, 2010. "The Financial Crisis in Central and Eastern Europe: the Measures and Determinants of the Exchange Market Pressure Index and the Money Market Pressure Index," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 2(2).
    8. Pontines, Victor, 2015. "How useful is an Asian Currency Unit (ACU) index for surveillance in East Asia?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 269-287.
    9. Hall, Stephen G. & Kenjegaliev, Amangeldi & Swamy, P.A.V.B. & Tavlas, George S., 2013. "Measuring currency pressures: The cases of the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, and the UK pound," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-20.
    10. Abdul Aziz, Muhammad & Widodo, Tri, 2017. "Exchange Market Pressure: Evidences from ASEAN Inflation Targeting Countries," MPRA Paper 80919, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Reza Siregar & Ramkishen Rajan, 2006. "Models of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates Revisited: A Selective Review of the Literature," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2006-04, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    12. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel Voia, 2015. "Identifying extreme values of exchange market pressure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1055-1078, May.
    13. Scott W Hegerty, 2013. "Exchange Market Pressure, Output Drops, and Domestic Credit: Do Emerging Markets Behave Differently?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2583-2595.
    14. Scott W. Hegerty, 2015. "Time-Varying Versus Fixed Weights in Exchange-Market Pressure Indices: Evidence From Tests Using Latin American Data," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 21-36.
    15. Scott W. Hegerty, 2014. "Measuring Exchange Market Pressure and Its Contagion in the East African Community," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(2), pages 239-257, June.
    16. Dreher, Axel & Walter, Stefanie, 2010. "Does the IMF Help or Hurt? The Effect of IMF Programs on the Likelihood and Outcome of Currency Crises," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-18, January.
    17. Daniel Stavárek, 2011. "Comparison of Exchange Market Pressure Across the New Part of the European Union," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 21-39, July.
    18. Ratnasari, Anggraeni & Widodo, Tri, 2017. "Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policies in ASEAN5," MPRA Paper 81543, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Kym Anderson & Will Martin & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2007. "China, the WTO, and the Doha Agenda," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2007-02, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
    20. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2012. "Episodes of large exchange rate appreciations and reserves accumulations in selected Asian economies: Is fear of appreciations justified?," CAMA Working Papers 2012-31, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics


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