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Assessing Early Warning Systems: How Have They Worked in Practice?

  • Andrew Berg
  • Eduardo Borensztein
  • Catherine Pattillo

Since 1999, IMF staff have been tracking several early warning system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly. Copyright 2005, International Monetary Fund

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Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 52 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 5

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:52:y:2005:i:3:p:5
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