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Identifying Extreme Values of Exchange Market Pressure

This paper contributes to the existing literature on dating currency crisis in three ways. First, we combine the Monte Carlo simulation with a modified Hill’s estimator method to obtain more robust results and efficiently deal with bias variance tradeoff in identifying extreme values. Second, we propose a systematic way to choose the reference country in building the Exchange Market Pressure index rather than arbitrary or descriptive reasoning. Third, different data frequencies are applied and the results are evaluated. Our finding suggests that higher frequency data are more appropriate while applying Extreme Value Theory. It urges researchers to be more cautious in applying EVT and interpreting tail incidences that are obtained from lower frequency data.

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File URL: http://www.carleton.ca/economics/wp-content/uploads/cep11-10.pdf
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Paper provided by Carleton University, Department of Economics in its series Carleton Economic Papers with number 11-10.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 10 Nov 2011
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published: Carleton Economic Papers
Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:11-10
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  1. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
  2. Wagner, Niklas & Marsh, Terry, 2000. "On Adaptive Tail Index Estimation for Financial Return Models," Research Program in Finance, Working Paper Series qt2651k8f5, Research Program in Finance, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  3. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2013. "Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2483-2492.
  4. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
  5. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September.
  6. Dennis Jansen & Casper de Vries, 1988. "On the frequency of large stock returns: putting booms and busts into perspective," Working Papers 1989-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 1349, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Thomas D. Willett & Ekniti Nitithanprapas & Isriya Nitithanprapas & Sunil Rongala, 2004. "The Asian Crises Reexamined," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(3), pages 32-87.
  10. Glick, R. & Hutchison, M., 2000. "Capital Controls and Exchange Rate Instability in Developing Countries," Papers pb00-05, Economisch Institut voor het Midden en Kleinbedrijf-.
  11. Pontines, Victor & Siregar, Reza, 2008. "Fundamental pitfalls of exchange market pressure-based approaches to identification of currency crises," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 345-365.
  12. Haile, Fasika & Pozo, Susan, 2008. "Currency crisis contagion and the identification of transmission channels," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 572-588, October.
  13. Pozo, Susan & Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina, 2003. "Statistical distributions and the identification of currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 591-609, August.
  14. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  15. Niklas Wagner and Terry Marsh., 2000. "On Adaptive Tail Index Estimation for Financial Return Models," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-295, University of California at Berkeley.
  16. Fasika Damte Haile & Susan Pozo, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Currency Crises: an Evaluation using Extreme Value Theory," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 554-570, 09.
  17. Hols, Martien C A B & de Vries, Casper G, 1991. "The Limiting Distribution of Extremal Exchange Rate Returns," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 287-302, July-Sept.
  18. Huisman, Ronald, et al, 2001. "Tail-Index Estimates in Small Samples," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 208-16, April.
  19. Michael Bordo & Barry Eichengreen & Daniela Klingebiel & Maria Soledad Martinez-Peria, 2001. "Is the crisis problem growing more severe?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(32), pages 51-82, 04.
  20. Niklas Wagner & Terry A. Marsh, 2004. "Measuring Tail Thickness under GARCH and an Application to Extreme Exchange Rate Changes," Econometrics 0401008, EconWPA.
  21. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
  22. Boothe, Paul & Glassman, Debra, 1987. "The statistical distribution of exchange rates: Empirical evidence and economic implications," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3-4), pages 297-319, May.
  23. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, 04.
  24. Tudela, Merxe, 2004. "Explaining currency crises: a duration model approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 799-816, September.
  25. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "Financial crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and now," MPRA Paper 13877, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Ranil Salgado & Luca Antonio Ricci & Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 00/55, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Koedijk, Kees G. & Stork, Philip A. & de Vries, Casper G., 1992. "Differences between foreign exchange rate regimes: The view from the tails," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(5), pages 462-473, October.
  28. Jan P. A. M. Lestano, 2007. "Dating currency crises with ad hoc and extreme value-based thresholds: East Asia 1970-2002 [Dating currency crises]," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 371-388.
  29. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
  30. Wagner, Niklas & Marsh, Terry A., 2005. "Measuring tail thickness under GARCH and an application to extreme exchange rate changes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 165-185, January.
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