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Dating currency crises with ad hoc and extreme value-based thresholds: East Asia 1970-2002 [Dating currency crises]


  • Jan P. A. M. Lestano

    (Department of Economics, University of Groningen, The Netherlands)


Generally a currency crisis is defined to occur if an index of currency pressure exceeds a threshold. This paper compares currency crisis dating methods. For two definitions of currency pressure we contrast ad hoc and extreme value-based thresholds. We illustrate the methods with data of six East Asian countries for the January 1970-December 2002 period, and evaluate the methods on the basis of the IMF chronology of the Asia crisis in 1997-1999. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan P. A. M. Lestano, 2007. "Dating currency crises with ad hoc and extreme value-based thresholds: East Asia 1970-2002 [Dating currency crises]," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 371-388.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:12:y:2007:i:4:p:371-388 DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.316

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2005. "High-Frequency Contagion of Currency Crises in Asia ," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 357-381, December.
    3. Lestano & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2004. "A comparison of currency crisis dating methods: East Asia 1970-2002," CCSO Working Papers 200412, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    5. Reza Siregar & Victor Pontines & Ramkishen Rajan,, 2004. "Extreme Value Theory and the Incidence of Currency Crises," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 181, Econometric Society.
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    9. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    10. François Longin, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:mje:mjejnl:v:12:y:2016:i:3:p:19-37 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Marco Rocco, 2011. "Extreme value theory for finance: a survey," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 99, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Kelbesa Megersa & Danny Cassimon, 2015. "Assessing Indicators of Currency Crisis in Ethiopia: Signals Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 27(3), pages 315-330, September.
    4. Boonman, T.M. & Jacobs, J.P.A.M. & Kuper, G.H., 2013. "Sovereign debt crises in Latin America," Research Report 13016-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    5. Vincent Choon-Seng Lim & Nurulhuda Mohd. Hussain, 2014. "Stock Market Performance: Foretelling and Crisis Signalling?," Working Papers wp01, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre.
    6. Reza Siregar & Victor Pontines & Nurulhuda Mohd Hussain, 2010. "The US Sub-prime Crises and Extreme Exchange Market Pressures in Asia," Staff Papers, South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre, number sp75, April.
    7. repec:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:1:p:123-135 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel Voia, 2015. "Identifying extreme values of exchange market pressure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1055-1078, May.
    9. Jing, Zhongbo & de Haan, Jakob & Jacobs, Jan & Yang, Haizhen, 2015. "Identifying banking crises using money market pressure: New evidence for a large set of countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-20.
    10. Ping Wang & Tomoe Moore, 2014. "The determinants of vulnerability to currency crises: country-specific factors versus regional factors," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 619-640, November.
    11. Dungey, M. & Jacobs, J.P.A.M. & Lestano, L., 2010. "The internationalisation of financial crises," Research Report 10002, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    12. Ali Ari & Raif Cergibozan, 2016. "The Twin Crises: Determinants of Banking and Currency Crises in the Turkish Economy," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(1), pages 123-135, January.
    13. repec:dgr:rugsom:13016-eef is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Ari, Ali, 2008. "An Early Warning Signals Approach for Currency Crises: The Turkish Case," MPRA Paper 25858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    15. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2012. "Episodes of large exchange rate appreciations and reserves accumulations in selected Asian economies: Is fear of appreciations justified?," CAMA Working Papers 2012-31, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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