IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/asiaec/v3y2004i3p32-87.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Asian Crises Reexamined

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas D. Willett

    (Horton Professor of Economics Claremont Graduate University and Claremont McKenna College Director, Claremont Institute for Economic Policy Studies The Claremont Colleges Claremont, CA 91711 USA)

  • Ekniti Nitithanprapas

    (Senior Advisor to Executive Director World Bank)

  • Isriya Nitithanprapas

    (Policy and Planning Analyst National Economic & Social Development Board Thailand)

  • Sunil Rongala

    (Visiting Scholar Freeman Program in Asian Political Economy The Claremont Colleges Claremont, CA 91711 USA)

Abstract

This paper analyzes hypotheses and evidence for the causes of the Asian crises. It presents new evidence that, along with high rates of credit expansion and low ratios of international reserves to short-term debt, the combination of substantially appreciated currencies and large current account deficits played an important role in the crises' severity. Furthermore, the paper concludes that pre-crisis over-optimism rather than panic caused financial markets to behave imperfectly and that perverse financial liberalization and limited flexibility of exchange rates generated moral hazard problems of more importance than those generated by prospects of international bailouts. Copyright (c) 2005 Center for International Development and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas D. Willett & Ekniti Nitithanprapas & Isriya Nitithanprapas & Sunil Rongala, 2004. "The Asian Crises Reexamined," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(3), pages 32-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:3:y:2004:i:3:p:32-87
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1162/1535351054825184
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kawai,Masahiro & Newfarmer,Richard S. & Schmukler,Sergio L., 2001. "Crisis and contagion in East Asia : nine lessons," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2610, The World Bank.
    2. Bartolini, Leonardo & Drazen, Allan, 1997. "Capital-Account Liberalization as a Signal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 138-154, March.
    3. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2001. "Prospective Deficits and the Asian Currency Crisis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1155-1197, December.
    4. Pavan Ahluwalia, 2000. "Discriminating Contagion: An Alternative Explanation of Contagious Currency Crises in Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2000/014, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Edison, Hali & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2001. "Stopping hot money," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 533-553, December.
    6. Thomas Willett, 2003. "Fear of Floating Needn't Imply Fixed Rates: An OCA Approach to the Operation of Stable Intermediate Currency Regimes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 71-91, January.
    7. David Cook & Michael B. Devereux, 2002. "Capital Controls in Malaysia: Effectiveness and Side Effects," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 49-82.
    8. Arthur T. Denzau & Douglass C. North, 1994. "Shared Mental Models: Ideologies and Institutions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 3-31, February.
    9. Mr. Andrea Bubula & Ms. Inci Ötker, 2002. "The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Since 1990: Evidence From De Facto Policies," IMF Working Papers 2002/155, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    12. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    13. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-1.
    14. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    15. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
    16. Aaron Tornell, 1999. "Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1868, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    17. George Soros, 1999. "The International Financial Crisis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 58-76, March.
    18. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. Elaine Hutson & Colm Kearney, 1999. "The Asian financial crisis and the role of the IMF: A survey," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 393-412.
    20. Morris Goldstein (ed.), 1999. "Safeguarding Prosperity in a Global Financial System: The Future International Financial Architecture," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 50, October.
    21. Mr. Christian B. Mulder & Mr. Matthieu Bussière, 1999. "External Vulnerability in Emerging Market Economies: How High Liquidity Can Offset Weak Fundamentals and the Effects of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 1999/088, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Olivier Jeanne & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2001. "International bailouts, moral hazard and conditionality," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 408-432.
    23. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    24. Dooley, Michael P, 2000. "A Model of Crises in Emerging Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 256-272, January.
    25. Stephan Haggard, 2000. "Political Economy of the Asian Financial Crisis, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 107, October.
    26. Salvatore, Dominick, 1999. "Could the Financial Crisis in East Asia Have Been Predicted?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 341-347, May.
    27. Mr. Ranil M Salgado & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Mr. Francesco Caramazza, 2000. "Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 2000/055, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Policy Briefs PB98-1, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    29. Morris Goldstein, 1998. "Asian Financial Crisis: Causes, Cures and Systemic Implications, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa55, October.
    30. Agénor,Pierre-Richard & Miller,Marcus & Vines,David & Weber,Axel (ed.), 1999. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770804.
    31. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-548, September.
    32. Yung Chul Park & Yunjong Wang, 2002. "What Kind of International Financial Architecture for an Integrated World Economy?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 1(1), pages 91-128.
    33. Willett, Thomas D. & Keil, Manfred W. & Ahn, Young Seok, 2002. "Capital mobility for developing countries may not be so high," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 421-434, August.
    34. Barry J. Eichengreen, 1999. "Toward a New International Financial Architecture: A Practical Post-Asia Agenda," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 51, October.
    35. Eichengreen, Barry, 2002. "Financial Crises and What to Do About Them," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199257447, Decembrie.
    36. Tony Makin, 1999. "The Great East Asian Capital Flow Reversal: Reasons, Responses and Ramifications," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 407-419, May.
    37. Kearney, Colm, 1999. "The Asian Financial Crisis," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), vol. 1999(1-Februar), pages 29-55.
    38. O. Yul Kwon, 1998. "The Korean financial crisis: Diagnosis, remedies and prospects," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 331-357.
    39. Quinn, Dennis, 1997. "The Correlates of Change in International Financial Regulation," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 91(3), pages 531-551, September.
    40. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Jie & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2006. "Can High Reserves Offset Weak Fundamentals? A Simple Model of Precautionary Demand for Reserves," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 59(3), pages 317-328.
    2. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel Voia, 2015. "Identifying extreme values of exchange market pressure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1055-1078, May.
    3. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Gazi Salah Uddin & Muhammad Shahbaz & Charles Harvie & Teerawat Charoenrat, 2019. "Money Demand in a Dollarized Economy: Evidence from Laos PDR," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 18(1), pages 99-115, Winter/Sp.
    4. Jie Li, 2007. "Examining the interactions of high reserves and weak fundamentals in currency crises," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 617-621.
    5. Puspa D. Amri & Thomas D. Willett, 2017. "Policy Inconsistencies and the Political Economy of Currency Crises," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-24, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    2. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126, Decembrie.
    3. Caramazza, Francesco & Ricci, Luca & Salgado, Ranil, 2004. "International financial contagion in currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-70, February.
    4. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    5. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.
    6. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    7. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    8. Clara Garcia, 2004. "Capital Inflows, Policy Responses, and Their Ill Consequences: Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia in the Decade Before the Crises," Working Papers wp81, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    9. Matthieu Bussière, 2013. "Balance of payment crises in emerging markets: how early were the ‘early’ warning signals?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1601-1623, April.
    10. Dungey, Mardi & Fry, Renee & Gonzalez-Hermosillo, Brenda & Martin, Vance, 2006. "Contagion in international bond markets during the Russian and the LTCM crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-27, April.
    11. Bussiere, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2006. "Towards a new early warning system of financial crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 953-973, October.
    12. Fazio, Giorgio, 2007. "Extreme interdependence and extreme contagion between emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1261-1291, December.
    13. Pavel Trunin & M. Kamenskih, 2007. "Monitoring Financial Stability In Developing Economies (Case of Russia)," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 111.
    14. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2004. "Managing Macroeconomic Crises," NBER Working Papers 10907, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Taylor, Mark & Mody, Ashoka, 2003. "Common Vulnerabilities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3759, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53.
    17. Alexis CRUZ-RODRIGUEZ, 2016. "Exchange Arrangements and Currency Crises: What´s the matter with the exchange rate classification?," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 377-392, June.
    18. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 16125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Islam, Roumeen, 2000. "Should capital flows be regulated? - a look at the issues and policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2293, The World Bank.
    20. Arias, Guillaume & Erlandsson, Ulf, 2004. "Regime switching as an alternative early warning system of currency crises - an application to South-East Asia," Working Papers 2004:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:3:y:2004:i:3:p:32-87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kelly McDougall (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://direct.mit.edu/journals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.