IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/oup/wbecrv/v14y2000i2p287-307.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Demirguc, Asli
  • Detragiache, Enrica

Abstract

This article explores how a multivariate logit model of the probability of a banking crisis can be used to monitor banking sector fragility. The proposed approach relies on readily available data, and the fragility assessment has a clear interpretation based on in-sample statistics. The model has better in-sample performance than currently available alternatives, and the monitoring system can be tailored to fit the preferences of decisionmakers regarding type I and type II errors. The framework can be useful as a preliminary screen to economize on precautionary costs. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Demirguc, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2000. "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 287-307, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:14:y:2000:i:2:p:287-307
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.worldbank.org/research/journals/wber/revmay00/pdf/Article3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gavin, Michael & Hausmann, Ricardo, 1996. "The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6067, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. repec:idb:wpaper:318 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1996. "Understanding Financial Crises: A Developing Country Perspective," NBER Working Papers 5600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    6. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
    7. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 6370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Morris Goldstein & John Hawkins, 1998. "The Origin of the Asian Financial Turmoil," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9805, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. P. Honohan, 2000. "Banking System Failures in Developing and Transition Countries: Diagnosis and Prediction," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 29(1), pages 83-109, February.
    10. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1996. "Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Management: Tequila Lessons," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(3), pages 207-223, July.
    11. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Banking Crises: Was Asia Different?," IMF Working Papers 1998/091, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 1998. "The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 81-109, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schmidt Paul-Günther, 2001. "Ursachen systemischer Bankenkrisen: Erklärungsversuche, empirische Evidenz und wirtschaftspolitische Konsequenzen," ORDO. Jahrbuch für die Ordnung von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft, De Gruyter, vol. 52(1), pages 239-280, January.
    2. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Enrica Detragiache, 2005. "Cross-Country Empirical Studies of Systemic Bank Distress: A Survey," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 192(1), pages 68-83, April.
    3. Wong, Jim & Wong, Tak-Chuen & Leung, Phyllis, 2010. "Predicting banking distress in the EMEAP economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 169-179, September.
    4. Pavel Trunin & M. Kamenskih, 2007. "Monitoring Financial Stability In Developing Economies (Case of Russia)," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 111.
    5. Loayza, Norman V. & Ranciere, Romain, 2006. "Financial Development, Financial Fragility, and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(4), pages 1051-1076, June.
    6. Concha Betrán & María A. Pons, 2013. "Understanding Spanish Financial crises, 1850-2000: What determined their severity?," Working Papers 0048, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    7. Alejandro Gaytán & Christian A. Johnson, 2002. "A Review of the Literature on Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 183, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Rupa Duttagupta & Mr. Paul Cashin, 2008. "The Anatomy of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 2008/093, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
    10. Susan K. Schroeder, 2008. "The Underpinnings Of Country Risk Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 498-535, July.
    11. Julian Caballero, 2012. "Do Surges in International Capital Inflows Influence the Likelihood of Banking Crises? Cross-Country Evidence on Bonanzas in Capital Inflows and Bonanza-Boom- Bust Cycles," Research Department Publications 4775, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    12. Eichengreen, Barry & Arteta, Carlos, 2000. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt3pk9t1h2, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    13. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 1999. "Monitoring banking sector fragility : a multivariate logit approach with an application to the 1996-97 banking crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2085, The World Bank.
    14. Fernando Pineda G. & Hernán Piñeros G., 2009. "El indicador financiero único como mecanismo de alerta temprana: una nueva versión," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 039, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Christian A. Johnson, 2005. "Modelos de alerta temprana para pronosticar crisis bancarias: desde la extracción de señales a las redes neuronales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 20(1), pages 95-121, June.
    16. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Rating the Rating Agencies," MPRA Paper 24578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
    18. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises," NBER Working Papers 6370, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Matovnikov Mikhail, 2003. "The ups and downs of banking system in transition," EERC Working Paper Series 99-244e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    20. Menzie D. Chinn & Kenneth M. Kletzer, 1999. "International capital inflows, domestic financial intermediation and financial crises under imperfect information," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:14:y:2000:i:2:p:287-307. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Oxford University Press (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/wrldbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.