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Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia: A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis

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  • Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena
  • Ms. Valerie Cerra

Abstract

This paper investigates whether Indonesia’s recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks (“monsoons”), or contagion from neighboring countries. Markov-switching models attribute speculative pressure on Indonesia’s currency to domestic political and financial factors and contagion from speculative pressures in Thailand and Korea. In particular, the results from a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching model (which overcomes some drawbacks of previous methods) show that inclusion of exchange rate pressures from Thailand and Korea in the transition probabilities improves the conditional probabilities of crisis in Indonesia. There is also evidence of contagion in the stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Ms. Valerie Cerra, 2000. "Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia: A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2000/060, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/060
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. In Soo Kang, 2004. "A Study on the Early Warning Indicators of Currency Crisis: A Regional Perspective," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 7(1), pages 159-178, March.
    3. Jinghan Cai & Xiaobing Li, 2018. "Logistics and stock market inter-dependence: the case of China," International Journal of Logistics Economics and Globalisation, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(3), pages 292-306.
    4. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2010:i:057 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sarai Criado Nuevo, "undated". "Some critics to the contagion correlation test," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 05-01, FEDEA.
    6. Ali M. Kutan & Brasukra G. Sudjana, 2004. "Worsening of the Asian Financial Crisis: Who is to Blame?," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-658, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    7. Malgorzata Sulimierska, 2008. "Capital Account Liberalization and Currency Crisis - The Case of Central Eastern European Countries," International Trade and Finance Association Conference Papers 1140, International Trade and Finance Association.
    8. Sweta Saxena & Kar-yiu Wong, 1999. "Currency Crises and Capital Control: A Survey," Working Papers 0045, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    9. Khalid, Ahmed M. & Kawai, Masahiro, 2003. "Was financial market contagion the source of economic crisis in Asia?: Evidence using a multivariate VAR model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 131-156, February.
    10. Rosa Agustina Oyong & Rustam Didong & Sugiharso Safuan & Perry Warjiyo, 2018. "Early Detection of Indonesia's Vulnerability to Currency Crisis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 196-204.
    11. Reiny IRIANA & Fredrik SJÖHOLM, 2002. "Indonesia'S Economic Crisis: Contagion And Fundamentals," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 40(2), pages 135-151, June.
    12. Cevik, Emrah I. & Dibooglu, Sel & Kenc, Turalay, 2016. "Financial stress and economic activity in some emerging Asian economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 127-139.
    13. Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Multiple equilibria, contagion, and the emerging market crises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.

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