IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/aee/wpaper/0501.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Some critics to the contagion correlation test

Author

Listed:
  • Sarai Criado Nuevo

    (AFI)

Abstract

The term contagion is generally used to refer to the spread3 of market shocks from one country to another. However, identifying what is meant by contagion and its consequences has become in recent years a literature in itself4, given the importance of such consequences on economies all over the world. Despite the lack of theoretical consensus, some authors try to measure contagion through the use of correlation tests. The aim of my work is to raise a technical and conceptual critique concerning these models. To support my concerns I provide a broad vision and background of contagion literature and an insight in the particular field of contagion correlation test. The work is organized in four parts. Firstly, an overview of definitional issues concerning contagion, as presented in the literature, is explained together with the different crisis transmission channels that authors have identified. Secondly, a detailed description of the contagion correlation test as the most common means to search for contagion is presented, giving a full overview of the models used in the literature. Thirdly, I will express my concerns about the test and the models of the previous section. Finally, some conclusions are stated.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarai Criado Nuevo, 2005. "Some critics to the contagion correlation test," Working Papers 05-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  • Handle: RePEc:aee:wpaper:0501
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeefi.com/RePEc/pdf/defi05-01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-484, December.
    3. Sebastian Edwards & Raul Susmel, 2000. "Interest Rate Volatility and Contagion in Emerging Markets: Evidence from the 1990s," NBER Working Papers 7813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233424, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    6. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    7. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters?: A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 537-560, August.
    8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
    9. G. Andrew Karolyi, 2004. "Does International Financial Contagion Really Exist?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 16(2‐3), pages 136-146, March.
    10. Giancarlo Corsetti & Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2001. "Correlation Analysis of Financial Contagion: What One Should Know before Running a Test," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 408, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Flood, Robert & Marion, Nancy, 1999. "Perspectives on the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-26, January.
    12. Mr. Taimur Baig & Mr. Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian Default and the Contagion to Brazil," IMF Working Papers 2000/160, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
    14. Ms. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Ms. Valerie Cerra, 2000. "Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia: A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2000/060, International Monetary Fund.
    15. William B. English & Mico Loretan, 2000. "Evaluating \"correlation breakdowns\" during periods of market volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 658, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    17. Brian H. Boyer & Michael S. Gibson & Mico Loretan, 1997. "Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations," International Finance Discussion Papers 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Mardi Dungey & Diana Zhumabekova, 2001. "Testing for contagion using correlations: some words of caution," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    19. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 15(2), pages 177-197, August.
    20. Ms. Nancy P. Marion & Mr. Robert P Flood, 1998. "Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature," IMF Working Papers 1998/130, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Michael D. Bordo & Antu P. Murshid, 2000. "Are Financial Crises Becoming Increasingly More Contagious? What is the Historical Evidence on Contagion?," NBER Working Papers 7900, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    2. Gonzalez-Hermosillo Gonzalez, B.M., 2008. "Transmission of shocks across global financial markets : The role of contagion and investors' risk appetite," Other publications TiSEM d684f3c7-7ad8-4e93-88cf-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    3. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    4. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
    5. Woon Sau Leung & Nicholas Taylor, 2013. "Testing for contagion: the impact of US structured markets on international financial markets," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 11, pages 256-284, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Marcel Fratzscher, 2003. "On currency crises and contagion," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(2), pages 109-129.
    7. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    8. Bayoumi, Tamim & Fazio, Giorgio & Kumar, Manmohan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2007. "Fatal attraction: Using distance to measure contagion in good times as well as bad," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 259-273.
    9. Gravelle, Toni & Kichian, Maral & Morley, James, 2006. "Detecting shift-contagion in currency and bond markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 409-423, March.
    10. MARAIS Elise, 2004. "La contagion financi`ere : une ´etude empirique sur les causalités lors de la crise asiatique," International Finance 0404003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Elise MARAIS, 2007. "Mécanismes De Propag Ation Régionale De La Crise Boursière Asiatique," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 26, pages 13-33.
    12. Dirk Baur & Renee Fry, 2006. "Endogenous Contagion - A Panel Data Analysis," CAMA Working Papers 2006-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Sébastien Wälti, 2003. "Testing for contagion in international financial markets: which way to go?," IHEID Working Papers 04-2003, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    14. Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2003. "A Primer on Financial Contagion," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 571-608, September.
    15. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    16. Thomas Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "Shift versus traditional contagion in Asian markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp176, IIIS.
    17. Maria Kasch & Massimiliano Caporin, 2013. "Volatility Threshold Dynamic Conditional Correlations: An International Analysis," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 706-742, September.
    18. Simone Manganelli & Lorenzo Cappiello & Bruno Gerard, 2004. "The Contagion Box: Measuring Co-Movements in Financial Markets by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 77, Econometric Society.
    19. Massacci, D., 2007. "Identification and Estimation in an Incoherent Model of Contagion," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0744, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aee:wpaper:0501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Luis Miguel del Corral Cuervo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeefiea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.