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Testing For Contagion: A Conditional Correlation Analysis

  • gulielmo maria caporale

    (south bank university)

  • rea cipollini

    (queen mary university of london)

  • nicola spagnolo

    (brunel univesity)

Registered author(s):

    In this paper we test for contagion within the East Asian region, contagion being defined as a significant increase in the degree of co- movement between stock returns in different countries. For this purpose we use a parameter stability test and, following Rigobon (2004), we control for three types of bias, resulting from heteroscedasticity, endogeneity and omitted variable respectively. The null of interdependence against the alternative of contagion is then tested as an over-identifying restriction. Unlike other studies, our approach is based on full-sample estimation, and hence avoids the power problems arising from the typical situation of a large “non-crisis” and a small “crisis” sample. We also select endogenously the breakpoints corresponding to the beginning of the contagion period, and finally we impose more plausible restrictions in order to identify the system. Our findings suggest the existence of contagion within the East Asian region, consistently with crisis-contingent theories of asset market linkages.

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    File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/if/papers/0406/0406003.pdf
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    Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Finance with number 0406003.

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    Length: 18 pages
    Date of creation: 11 Jun 2004
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0406003
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 18
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

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    1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "What Caused the Asian Currency and Financial Crisis? Part II: The Policy Debate," NBER Working Papers 6834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2001. "Correlation Analysis of Financial Contagion: What One Should Know before Running a Test," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 408, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June.
    4. Roberto Rigobón & Kristin Forbes, 2001. "Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION.
    5. Mervyn A. King & Sushil Wadhwani, 1989. "Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why are Currency Crises Regional," CEPR Discussion Papers 1947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Financial market contagion in the Asian crisis," Textos para discussão 400, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    8. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    9. Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "On the Measurement of the International Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Mervyn King & Enrique Sentana & Sushil Wadhwani, 1990. "Volatiltiy and Links Between National Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 3357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    12. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Jushan Bai, 1995. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Working papers 95-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    14. Masson, Paul, 1999. "Contagion:: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 587-602, August.
    15. Carlo A. Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2000. "Looking for Contagion: Evidence from the ERM," NBER Working Papers 7797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1999. "What triggers market jitters? A chronicle of the Asian crisis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2094, The World Bank.
    17. repec:cup:etheor:v:13:y:1997:i:3:p:315-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2000. "Looking for Contagion: the Evidence from the ERM," CEPR Discussion Papers 2591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Mardi Dungey & Diana Zhumabekova, 2001. "Testing for contagion using correlations: some words of caution," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 2001-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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