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On the Measurement of the International Propagation of Shocks

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  • Roberto Rigobon

Abstract

In this paper I offer an alternative identification assumption that allows one to test for changing patterns regarding the international propagation of shocks when endogenous variables, omitted variables, and heteroskedasticity are present in the data. Using this methodology, I demonstrate that the propagation mechanisms of 36 stock markets remained relatively stable throughout the last three major international crises which have been associated with 'contagion' (i.e., Mexico 1994, Hong Kong 1997, and Russia 1998). These findings cast considerable doubt upon theories that suggest that the propagation of shocks is crisis contingent, and driven by endogenous liquidity issues, multiple equilibria, and political contagion. Rather, these findings would seem to support theories that identify such matters as trade, learning, and aggregate shocks as the primary transmission mechanisms in this process.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "On the Measurement of the International Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7354
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    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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