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Looking for Contagion: Evidence from the ERM

  • Carlo A. Favero
  • Francesco Giavazzi

This paper applies a full-information technique to test for the presence of contagion across the money markets of ERM member countries. We show that whenever it is possible to estimate a model for interdependence, a test for contagion based on a full information technique is more powerful. We test for the presence of contagion after having identified episodes of country-specific shocks, whose effects on other European markets are significantly different from those predictable from the estimated channels of interdependence. Using data on three-months interest rate spreads on German rates for seven countries over the period 1988-1992, we are unable to reject the null of contagion. Our evidence suggest that contagion within the ERM was a general phenomenon, not limited to a subset of weaker countries, the exception in the sample being France. Our results are mute as to the question of what lies behind these episodes of contagion; they show, however, that it is not always true that one only detects contagion when one applies poor statistical techniques.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w7797.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 7797.

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Date of creation: Jul 2000
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7797
Note: IFM
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  1. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
  2. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
  4. Johansen, S ren, 2000. "A Bartlett Correction Factor For Tests On The Cointegrating Relations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(05), pages 740-778, October.
  5. Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "On the Measurement of the International Propagation of Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7354, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. W.H. Buiter & G Corsetti & P Pesenti, 1997. "Interpreting the ERM Crisis: Country-Specific and Systemic Issues," CEP Discussion Papers dp0321, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  7. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  8. Ilan Goldfajn & Taimur Baig, 1999. "Financial market contagion in the Asian crisis," Textos para discussão 400, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  9. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
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