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The Asian Crisis Contagion: A Dynamic Correlation Approach Analysis

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  • Essahbi Essaadi

    () (Unité d'Analyse Quantitative Appliquée (UAQUAP)-ISG, Tunisie and GATE-Lyon 2 (UMR 5824 CNRS))

  • Jamel Jouini

    () (F.S.E.G.N., E.S.S.A.I. and L.E.G.I., Université 7 Novembre de Carthage, Tunisie, GREQAM, Université de la Méditerranée, France)

  • Wajih Khallouli

    () (Unité d'Analyse Quantitative Appliquée (UAQUAP) and ESSEC, Université de Tunis, Tunisie)

Abstract

In this paper we are testing for contagion caused by the Thai baht collapse of July 1997. In line with earlier work, shift-contagion is defined as a structural change within the international propagation mechanisms of financial shocks. We adopt Bai and Perrons (1998) structural break approach in order to detect the endogenous break points of the pair-wise time-varying correlations between Thailand and seven Asian stock market returns. Our approach enables us to solve the misspecification problem of the crisis window. Our results illustrate the existence of shift-contagion in the Asian crisis caused by the crisis in Thailand.

Suggested Citation

  • Essahbi Essaadi & Jamel Jouini & Wajih Khallouli, 2009. "The Asian Crisis Contagion: A Dynamic Correlation Approach Analysis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(2), pages 241-260, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:56:y:2009:i:2:p:241-260
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Essahbi Essaadi & Mohamed Boutahar, 2010. "A Measure of Variability in Comovement for Economic Variables: a Time-Varying Coherence Function Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1054-1070.
    2. João Sousa Andrade & Adelaide Duarte, 2011. "The Fundamentals of the Portuguese Crisis," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 58(2), pages 195-218, June.
    3. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Essaadi, Essahbi, 2011. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: Evidences from time-varying coherence study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 351-365, January.
    4. Chia-Hsun Hsieh & Shian-Chang Huang, 2012. "Time-Varying Dependency and Structural Changes in Currency Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 94-127, March.
    5. Houssem Rachdi, 2010. "The Link between International Supervision and Banking Crises," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 57(3), pages 321-332, September.
    6. repec:bla:worlde:v:40:y:2017:i:10:p:2153-2171 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Renée Fry & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Chrismin Tang, 2011. "Actually This Time Is Different," CAMA Working Papers 2011-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    8. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Hsiao & Chrismin Tang, 2014. "Contagion and Global Financial Crises: Lessons from Nine Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 521-570, July.
    9. repec:voj:journl:v:64:y:2017:i:3:p:315-336 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Dimitris Kenourgios & Dimitrios Dimitriou, 2014. "Contagion Effects of the Global Financial Crisis in US and European Real Economy Sectors," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(3), pages 275-288, June.
    11. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00333582 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Nazif Durmaz, 2014. "Inventories of Asian Textile Producers, US Cotton Exports, and the Exchange Rate," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(4), pages 397-413, September.
    13. Sergio Andenmatten & Felix Brill, 2011. "Measuring Co-Movements of CDS Premia during the Greek Debt Crisis," Diskussionsschriften dp1104, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Shift-contagion; Time-varying correlation; Sequential selection procedure;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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