IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Transmission of Sovereign Risk in the Euro Crisis

Listed author(s):

We assess the role of financial linkages for the transmission of sovereign risk in the Euro Crisis. Building on the narrative approach by Romer and Romer (1989), we use financial news to identify structural shocks in a VAR model of daily sovereign CDS for eleven European countries. To estimate how these shocks transmit across borders, we use data on cross-country bank exposures to sovereign debt. Our results indicate that exposure to Greek sovereign debt and debt of Greek banks constitute important transmission channels. Overall, financial linkages explain up to two thirds of transmission of sovereign debt in the Euro Crisis.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.szgerzensee.ch/fileadmin/Dateien_Anwender/Dokumente/working_papers/wp-1201.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: None

Paper provided by Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee in its series Working Papers with number 12.01.

as
in new window

Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:1201
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Studienzentrum Gerzensee, Postfach 21, 3115 Gerzensee

Phone: ++41 (0)31 780 31 31
Fax: ++41 (0)31 780 31 00
Web page: http://www.szgerzensee.ch/
Email:

Order Information: Postal: Studienzentrum Gerzensee, Postfach 21, 3115 Gerzensee
Email:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2011. "Sovereign Default Risk and Bank Fragility in Financially Integrated Economies," NBER Working Papers 16899, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sandra Lizarazo, 2009. "Contagion of Financial Crises in Sovereing Debt Markets," Working Papers 0906, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  3. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-3.
  4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Elias Papaioannou & José-Luis Peydró, 2013. "Financial Regulation, Financial Globalization, and the Synchronization of Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 1179-1228, 06.
  5. Saleem Bahaj, 2014. "Systemic Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Implications in the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 1406, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  6. Willem H. Buiter & Giancarlo M. Corsetti & Paolo A. Pesenti, 1997. "Interpreting the ERM crisis: country-specific and systemic issues," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20361, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  7. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
  8. Rui Albuquerque & Clara Vega, 2009. "Economic News and International Stock Market Co-movement," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 13(3), pages 401-465.
  9. Edda Zoli & Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 09/222, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Gonçalves, Sílvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Working Paper Series 0196, European Central Bank.
  11. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1998. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," MPRA Paper 13709, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer., 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," Economics Working Papers 89-107, University of California at Berkeley.
  13. Luca Guerrieri & Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2012. "Banks, Sovereign Debt, and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, pages 181-213 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O, 2012. "A Reconciliation of SVAR and Narrative Estimates of Tax Multipliers," CEPR Discussion Papers 8973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Giovanni Lombardo & Luca Dedola, 2010. "Financial Frictions, Financial Integration and the International Propagation of Shocks," 2010 Meeting Papers 288, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. Eric van Wincoop, 2011. "International Contagion Through Leveraged Financial Institutions," NBER Working Papers 17686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1999. "What triggers market jitters: a chronicle of the Asian crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 634, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Forbes, Kristen & Chinn, Menzie David, 2003. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," Working papers 4414-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  19. Hernandez, Leonardo F. & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 2001. "What drives contagion: Trade, neighborhood, or financial links?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 203-218.
  20. Rene M. Stulz, 2010. "Credit Default Swaps and the Credit Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 73-92, Winter.
  21. Acharya, Viral V & Drechsler, Itamar & Schnabl, Philipp, 2011. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 8679, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Frank Packer & Chamaree Suthiphongchai, 2003. "Sovereign credit default swaps," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  23. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
  24. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
  25. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  26. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2002. "Some Contagion, Some Interdependence: More Pitfalls in Tests of Financial Contagion," CEPR Discussion Papers 3310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  27. Broner, Fernando & Gelos, Gaston & Reinhart, Carmen, 2004. "When in peril, retrench: testing the portfolio channel of contagion," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun, pages 1-34.
  28. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2010. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Working Paper Series 1271, European Central Bank.
  29. Amadou N Sy, 2009. "The Systemic Regulation of Credit Rating Agencies and Rated Markets," IMF Working Papers 09/129, International Monetary Fund.
  30. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  31. Stulz, Rene, 2010. "Credit default Swaps and the Credit Crisis," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 157-175.
  32. Morten Ravn & Karel Mertens, 2012. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," 2012 Meeting Papers 638, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  33. Merler, S. & Pisani-Ferry, J., 2012. "Hazardous tango: sovereign-bank interdependence and financial stability in the euro area," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 201-210, April.
  34. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2007. "How Sovereign is Sovereign Credit Risk?," NBER Working Papers 13658, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  36. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2007. "Real-Time Price Discovery in Global Stock, Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2007-20, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  37. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Park, Yung Chul & Claessens, Stijn, 2000. "Contagion: Understanding How It Spreads," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 15(2), pages 177-197, August.
  38. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
  39. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Rabah Arezki & Bertrand Candelon & Amadou Sy, 2011. "Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers: Evidence from the European Debt Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3411, CESifo Group Munich.
  41. Forbes, Kristin J., 2004. "The Asian flu and Russian virus: the international transmission of crises in firm-level data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 59-92, May.
  42. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign "CDS" Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
  43. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Minsoo Lee & Donghyun Park, 2012. "Developing countries' financial vulnerability to the euro crisis: An event study of equity and bond markets," NBER Working Papers 18028, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  44. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2003. "Spillovers through banking centers: a panel data analysis of bank flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 483-509, August.
  45. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai, 2013. "Linkages across Sovereign Debt Markets," NBER Working Papers 19548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Stephan Dieckmann & Thomas Plank, 2012. "Default Risk of Advanced Economies: An Empirical Analysis of Credit Default Swaps during the Financial Crisis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 16(4), pages 903-934.
  47. Rodrigo O. Valdes & Leonardo Hernández, 2001. "What Drives Contagion; Trade Neighborhood, or Financial Links?," IMF Working Papers 01/29, International Monetary Fund.
  48. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2011. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Working Papers 2012-004, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
  49. Amadou N.R. Sy, 2009. "The Systemic Regulation of Credit Rating Agencies and Rated Markets," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 10(4), pages 69-108, October.
  50. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
  51. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Patrick Slovik, 2010. "The EU Stress Test and Sovereign Debt Exposures," OECD Working Papers on Finance, Insurance and Private Pensions 4, OECD Publishing.
  52. Garry J. Schinasi & R. Todd Smith, 2000. "Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-1.
  53. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
  54. Albert S. Kyle, 2001. "Contagion as a Wealth Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1401-1440, 08.
  55. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:44:y:2012:i:2012-01:p:81-156 is not listed on IDEAS
  56. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Disentangling the Channels of the 2007-2009 Recession," NBER Working Papers 18094, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Bertrand Candelon & Amadou N Sy & Rabah Arezki, 2011. "Sovereign Rating News and Financial Markets Spillovers; Evidence from the European Debt Crisis," IMF Working Papers 11/68, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:szg:worpap:1201. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (library)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.