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Contagion of Financial Crises in Sovereing Debt Markets

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  • Sandra Lizarazo

    () (Centro de Investigacion Economica (CIE), Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico (ITAM))

Abstract

This paper develops a quantitative model of debt, default, and contagion of financial crises for small open economies that interact with risk averse international investors. The paper extends the recent literature on endogenous default risk to the case in which several emerging economies that cannot credibly commit to honor their international debts have common investors. The existence of common investors with preferences that exhibit decreasing absolute risk aversion generates financial links between the emerging economies sovereign debt markets that help to explain the endogenous determination of credit limits, capital flows, and the risk premium in sovereign bond prices as function not only of the economy's fundamentals, the investors' characteristics (wealth, and degree of risk aversion) but more importantly of the fundamentals of other emerging economies. Therefore this paper provides a theoretical formalization that is the base for and endogenous explanation of the contagion of financial crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandra Lizarazo, 2009. "Contagion of Financial Crises in Sovereing Debt Markets," Working Papers 0906, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  • Handle: RePEc:cie:wpaper:0906
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 64-83.
    2. Sandra Lizarazo & Jose Maria Da-Rocha, 2009. "Money, Credit and Default," Working Papers 0908, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    3. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-3.
    4. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 117-125, September.
    5. Cuadra, Gabriel & Sapriza, Horacio, 2008. "Sovereign default, interest rates and political uncertainty in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 78-88, September.
    6. Lagunoff, Roger & Schreft, Stacey L., 2001. "A Model of Financial Fragility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, pages 220-264.
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    8. Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2012. "Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 187-232.
    9. Bewley, Truman, 1983. "A Difficulty with the Optimum Quantity of Money," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(5), pages 1485-1504, September.
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    11. Satyajit Chatterjee & Dean Corbae & Makoto Nakajima & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2007. "A Quantitative Theory of Unsecured Consumer Credit with Risk of Default," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(6), pages 1525-1589, November.
    12. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 2000. "The Russian Default and the Contagion to Brazil," IMF Working Papers 00/160, International Monetary Fund.
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    19. Garry J. Schinasi & R. Todd Smith, 2000. "Portfolio Diversification, Leverage, and Financial Contagion," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-1.
    20. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
    21. Kristin Forbes, 2000. "The Asian Flu and Russian Virus: Firm-level Evidence on How Crises are Transmitted Internationally," NBER Working Papers 7807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. João Silvestre, 2017. "Sovereign default contagion: an agent-based model approach," Working Papers Department of Economics 2017/08, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 117-125, September.
    3. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & César Sosa-Padilla, 2016. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1383-1422.
    4. Nikolai Stähler, 2013. "Recent Developments In Quantitative Models Of Sovereign Default," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, pages 605-633.
    5. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:18-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Cesar Sosa-Padilla & Leonardo Martinez, 2010. "Debt dilution, overborrowing, and sovereign default risk," 2010 Meeting Papers 481, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Brutti, Filippo & Sauré, Philip, 2015. "Transmission of sovereign risk in the Euro crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 231-248.
    8. Leonardo Martinez & Juan Hatchondo & Javier Bianchi, 2012. "Sovereign defaults and optimal reserves management," 2012 Meeting Papers 1125, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2012. "Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium," Working Paper 12-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    10. repec:eee:macchp:v2-1697 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Lizarazo, Sandra Valentina, 2013. "Default risk and risk averse international investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 317-330.
    12. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "Heterogeneous Borrowers In Quantitative Models Of Sovereign Default," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1129-1151, November.
    13. Ludwig, Maximilian, 2014. "How well do we understand sovereign debt crisis? Evidence from Latin America," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100531, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Can Sever, 2016. "Contagion: Recent Models in International Finance Literature," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 5(2), pages 59-66, June.
    15. Yan Bai & Cristina Arellano, 2012. "Linkages across sovereign debt markets," 2012 Meeting Papers 414, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    17. Vincenzo Quadrini, 2017. "The external risks of financial integration for emerging economies," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 18-24, April.
    18. Leonardo Martinez & Juan Carlos Hatchondo, 2008. "A model of credit risk without commitment," 2008 Meeting Papers 940, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Ludwig, Maximilian, 2013. "Government Debt and Default in a Minimal State," Working Papers 30/2013, Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; Sovereign Debt; Financial Links; Default;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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