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News and sovereign default risk in small open economies

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  • Durdu, C. Bora
  • Nunes, Ricardo
  • Sapriza, Horacio

Abstract

This paper builds a unified model of sovereign debt, default risk, and news shocks. News shocks improve the quantitative performance of the sovereign default model in a number of empirically-relevant dimensions. First, with news shocks, not all defaults occur during downturns. Second, the news shocks help account for key differences between developing and more developed economies: as the precision of news improves, the model predicts lower variability of consumption, less countercyclical trade balance and interest rate spreads, as well as a higher level of debt in line with more developed economies. Third, the model captures the hump-shaped relationship between default rates and the precision of news obtained from the data. Finally, the news shocks have a nonmonotonic effect on welfare.

Suggested Citation

  • Durdu, C. Bora & Nunes, Ricardo & Sapriza, Horacio, 2013. "News and sovereign default risk in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-17.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:91:y:2013:i:1:p:1-17
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2013.04.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Fink, Fabian & Scholl, Almuth, 2016. "A quantitative model of sovereign debt, bailouts and conditionality," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 176-190.
    2. Javier Bianchi & Chenxin Liu & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2016. "Fundamentals News, Global Liquidity, and Macroprudential Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2015 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. repec:chb:bcchsb:v25c07pp225-277 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & César Sosa-Padilla, 2016. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1383-1422.
    5. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Donghyun Park, 2016. "Fundamentals and Sovereign Risk of Emerging Markets," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 151-177, May.
    6. Christopher M. Gunn & Alok Johri, 2013. "Fear of Sovereign Default, Banks, and Expectations-driven Business Cycles," Department of Economics Working Papers 2013-08, McMaster University.
    7. Juan M. Hernandez & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2017. "Optimal v. simple financial policy rules in a production economy with “liability dollarization," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 1-15, April.
    8. Durdu, C. Bora & Nunes, Ricardo & Sapriza, Horacio, 2013. "News and sovereign default risk in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 1-17.
    9. Michael Tomz & Mark L.J. Wright, 2013. "Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 247-272, May.
    10. Matsuoka, Hideaki, 2015. "Fiscal limits and sovereign default risk in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 13-30.
    11. Bauducco, Sofia & Caprioli, Francesco, 2014. "Optimal fiscal policy in a small open economy with limited commitment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 302-315.
    12. Große Steffen, Christoph, 2015. "Uncertainty shocks and non-fundamental debt crises: An ambiguity approach," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112936, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Leonardo Martinez & Juan Hatchondo & Javier Bianchi, 2012. "Sovereign defaults and optimal reserves management," 2012 Meeting Papers 1125, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. repec:eee:macchp:v2-1697 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Francisco Roch, 2012. "Fiscal rules and the sovereign default premium," Working Paper 12-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    16. Alok Johri & Terry Yip, 2017. "Financial Shocks,Supply-chain Relationships and the Great Trade Collapse," Department of Economics Working Papers 2017-11, McMaster University.
    17. repec:eee:inecon:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:119-133 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Juan M. Hernandez & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2017. "Optimal v. simple financial policy rules in a production economy with “liability dollarization," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 25-39, April.
    19. Papadia, Andrea, 2017. "Sovereign defaults during the Great Depression: the role of fiscal fragility," Economic History Working Papers 68943, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    20. Aguiar, M. & Chatterjee, S. & Cole, H. & Stangebye, Z., 2016. "Quantitative Models of Sovereign Debt Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    21. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2016. "Macroprudential Policy: Promise and Challenges," NBER Working Papers 22868, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign default risk; News shocks; Endogenous borrowing constraints;

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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