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News and Business Cycles in Open Economies

  • NIR JAIMOVICH
  • SERGIO REBELO

We study the effects of news about future total factor productivity (TFP) in a small open economy. We show that an open-economy version of the neoclassical model produces a recession in response to good news about future TFP. We propose an open-economy model that generates comovement in response to TFP news. The key elements of our model are a weak short-run wealth effect on the labor supply and adjustment costs to labor and investment. We show that our model also generates comovement in response to news about future investment-specific technical change and to "sudden stops." Copyright (c) 2008 The Ohio State University.

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 40 (2008)
Issue (Month): 8 (December)
Pages: 1699-1711

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:8:p:1699-1711
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  1. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher Gust & Jorge Roldos, 2002. "Monetary Policy in a Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 9005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1097-1118, September.
  5. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "Business cycles in emerging economies: the role of interest rates," Staff Report 335, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Correia, Isabel & Neves, Joao C. & Rebelo, Sergio, 1995. "Business cycles in a small open economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1089-1113, June.
  7. Paul Beaudry & Fabrice Collard, 2006. "Gold rush fever in business cycles," 2006 Meeting Papers 8, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Barro, Robert J & King, Robert G, 1984. "Time-separable Preferences and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 817-39, November.
  9. Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2005. "Sudden Stops and Output Drops," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 381-387, May.
  10. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 458-477, July.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
  12. Franck Portier & Paul Beaudry, 2004. "When Can Changes in Expectations Cause Business Cycle Fluctuations?," 2004 Meeting Papers 865, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  14. Wouter J. Denhaan & Georg Kaltenbrunner, 2005. "Growth Expectations and Business Cycles," 2005 Meeting Papers 29, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  15. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2005. "Sudden Stops in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model with Credit Constraints: A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q," 2005 Meeting Papers 307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  16. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  17. Janice Eberly & Sergio Rebelo & Nicolas Vincent, 2009. "Investment and Value: a Neoclassical Benchmark," Cahiers de recherche 0908, CIRPEE.
  18. Thomas J. Sargent, 1978. "Estimation of dynamic labor demand schedules under rational expectations," Staff Report 27, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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