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Sovereign Default, Terms of Trade and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets

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  • Cuadra Gabriel
  • Sapriza Horacio

Abstract

Emerging economies tend to experience larger fluctuations in their terms of trade, countercyclical interest rates and more default episodes than developed countries. These structural features might suggest a relevant role for world prices in driving country spreads. This paper studies the role of terms of trade shocks in inducing output fluctuations and countercyclical spreads using a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. The model predicts that default incentives and default premia are higher in recessions, as observed in the data. In a quantitative exercise, the model matches various features of emerging economies and can account for the dynamics of default episodes in these markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuadra Gabriel & Sapriza Horacio, 2006. "Sovereign Default, Terms of Trade and Interest Rates in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 2006-01, Banco de México.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2006-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Karlygash Kuralbayeva & David Vines, 2008. "Shocks to Terms of Trade and Risk-premium in an Intertemporal Model: The Dutch Disease and a Dutch Party," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 277-303, July.
    2. Fernández, Andrés & González, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2018. "Sharing a ride on the commodities roller coaster: Common factors in business cycles of emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 99-121.
    3. Ricardo Correa & Horacio Sapriza, 2014. "Sovereign Debt Crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1104, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Lopez-Martin, Bernabe & Leal, Julio & Martinez Fritscher, Andre, 2019. "Commodity price risk management and fiscal policy in a sovereign default model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 304-323.
    5. Ethan Cohen-Cole & Burcu Duygan-Bump & Judit Montoriol-Garriga, 2009. "Forgive and forget: who gets credit after bankruptcy and why?," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers QAU09-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 117-125, September.
    7. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & César Sosa-Padilla, 2016. "Debt Dilution and Sovereign Default Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(5), pages 1383-1422.
    8. Eicher, Theo S. & Schubert, Stefan F. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2008. "Dynamic effects of terms of trade shocks: The impact on debt and growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 876-896, October.
    9. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2006. "Computing business cycles in emerging economy models," Working Paper 06-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    10. Kikkawa, Ayumu Ken & Sasahara, Akira, 2020. "Gains from trade and the sovereign bond market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    11. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "Heterogeneous Borrowers In Quantitative Models Of Sovereign Default," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1129-1151, November.
    12. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "On the cyclicality of the interest rate in emerging economy models: solution methods matter," Working Paper 09-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    13. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Cesar Sosa-Padilla & Leonardo Martinez, 2010. "Debt dilution, overborrowing, and sovereign default risk," 2010 Meeting Papers 481, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Juan M. Sanchez, 2009. "The role of information in the rise in consumer bankruptcies," Working Paper 09-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    15. Leonardo Martinez & Juan Carlos Hatchondo, 2008. "A model of credit risk without commitment," 2008 Meeting Papers 940, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2007. "Quantitative models of sovereign default and the threat of financial exclusion," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 93(Sum), pages 251-286.
    17. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2007. "The economics of sovereign defaults," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 93(Spr), pages 163-187.
    18. Gu, Grace Weishi, 2015. "A Tale of Two Countries: Sovereign Default, Exchange Rate, and Trade," MPRA Paper 61900, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Kartik B. Athreya & Hubert P. Janicki, 2006. "Credit exclusion in quantitative models of bankruptcy: does it matter?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 92(Win), pages 17-49.

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    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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