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Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies

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  • Andrés Fernández

    (Inter-American Development Bank)

  • Andrés González

    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Diego Rodríguez

    (Banco de la República de Colombia)

Abstract

Fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). We document how these fluctuations correlate strongly with the business cycle in EMEs. We then embed a commodity sector into a multi-country EMEs business cycle model where exogenous fluctuations in commodity prices follow a common dynamic factor structure and coexist with other driving forces. The estimated model assigns to commodity shocks 42 percent of the variance in income, of which a considerable part is linked to the common factor. A further amplification mechanism is a spillover effect from commodity prices to risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Fernández & Andrés González & Diego Rodríguez, 2015. "Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies," Borradores de Economia 915, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:915
    DOI: 10.32468/be.915
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    3. Lopez-Martin, Bernabe & Leal, Julio & Martinez Fritscher, Andre, 2019. "Commodity price risk management and fiscal policy in a sovereign default model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 304-323.
    4. Andrés Fernández & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Cesar E. Tamayo, 2019. "Saving Rates in Latin America: A Neoclassical Perspective," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(4), pages 791-823, December.
    5. Caporin, Massimiliano & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Arif, Muhammad & Hasan, Mudassar & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Hussain Shahzad, Syed Jawad, 2021. "Asymmetric and time-frequency spillovers among commodities using high-frequency data," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Chang, Roberto & Fernández, Andrés & Gulan, Adam, 2017. "Bond finance, bank credit, and aggregate fluctuations in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 90-109.
    7. Lin, Boqiang & Xu, Bin, 2019. "How to effectively stabilize China's commodity price fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Barrail, Zulma, 2020. "Business cycle implications of rising household credit market participation in emerging countries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    9. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2020. "Global commodity prices and global stock market volatility shocks: Effects across countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    10. Böhm, Hannes & Eichler, Stefan & Gießler, Stefan, 2019. "What drives the commodity-sovereign-risk-dependence in emerging market economies?," IWH Discussion Papers 23/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    11. Wu, Fei & Zhao, Wan-Li & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2020. "Dependency, centrality and dynamic networks for international commodity futures prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 118-132.
    12. Francis X. Diebold & Laura Liu & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Commodity Connectedness," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Enrique G. Mendoza & Ernesto Pastén & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects and Policy Measures, edition 1, volume 25, chapter 4, pages 097-136, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Zhang, Dayong & Broadstock, David C., 2020. "Global financial crisis and rising connectedness in the international commodity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen, 2016. "Business Cycles in Small, Open Economies: Evidence from Panel Data Between 1900 and 2013," Staff Working Papers 16-48, Bank of Canada.
    15. Wang, Xunxiao, 2020. "Frequency dynamics of volatility spillovers among crude oil and international stock markets: The role of the interest rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging economies; business cycles; commodity prices; common factors; Bayesian estimation; dynamic stochastic equilibrium models.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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