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Have business cycles changed over the last two decades? An empirical investigation

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  • Calderón, César
  • Fuentes, J. Rodrigo

Abstract

We document the properties of business cycles of 71 countries (23 industrial countries and 48 emerging market economies, or EMEs), from 1970q1 to 2012q4 using the Harding and Pagan dating algorithm. First, recessions are deeper, steeper and costlier among EMEs (especially in East Asia and Latin America). Second, recoveries are swifter and stronger among EMEs, partly due to stronger rebound effects. Third, recessions became less costly during the globalization period (1985–2007) for industrial countries and EMEs, thus reflecting institutional changes made during the “Great Moderation.” Fourth, the dynamic behavior of macroeconomic indicators around peaks in real GDP is more volatile in downturns associated with crisis compared to other downturns. Fifth, peaks in financial cycles (credit and asset prices) tend to precede peaks in real output cycles. Finally, although both industrial and emerging markets have experienced deep recessions during the recent global financial crisis, the emerging markets have recovered faster.

Suggested Citation

  • Calderón, César & Fuentes, J. Rodrigo, 2014. "Have business cycles changed over the last two decades? An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 98-123.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:109:y:2014:i:c:p:98-123
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2014.03.001
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    6. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    7. Bleaney, Michael & Saxena, Sweta & Yin, Lin, 2018. "Exchange rate regimes, devaluations and growth collapses," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 15-25.
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    10. Marco Rubilar-González & Gabriel Pino, 2018. "Are Euro-Area expectations about recession phases effective to anticipate consequences of economic crises?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 141-161, June.
    11. Xue, Wenjun & Zhang, Liwen, 2019. "Revisiting the asymmetric effects of bank credit on the business cycle: A panel quantile regression approach," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
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    15. Quintero Otero, Jorge David & Padilla Sierra, Alcides de Jesús, 2024. "Impacto de la sincronización sub-nacional sobre el comportamiento de los ciclos nacionales en economías emergentes con inflación objetivo," Documentos Departamento de Economía 54, Universidad del Norte.
    16. Fossati, Sebastian, 2014. "Output Growth and Commodity Prices in Latin America: What Has Changed?," Working Papers 2014-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    17. Amaral, Amaury S. & Camargo, Victor E. & Crepaldi, Antônio F. & Ferreira, Fernando F., 2022. "Interaction between economies in a business cycle model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    18. George Koutsoumanis & Vítor Castro, 2023. "The duration of acceleration cycle downturns: duration dependence, international dynamics and synchronisation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1667-1698, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Peaks and troughs; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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