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Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation

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  • Fatma Pinar Erdem

    () (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey)

  • Erdal Ozmen

    () (Department of Economics, METU)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impacts of domestic and external factors along with exchange rate regimes on business cycles in a large panel of advanced and emerging market economies by employing panel logit, cointegration and autoregressive distributed lag model estimation procedures. The results for classical business cycles suggest that emerging market economies tend to experience much deeper recessions and relatively steeper expansions during almost the same duration. The probability of expansions significantly increases with exchange rate regimes flexibility. Our results, different from the bipolar view, strongly support exchange rate regime flexibility for both AE and EME other than the East Asian countries. The impacts of external real and financial shocks and domestic variables are significantly greater under managed regimes as compared to floats. Our results strongly suggest that the evolution and determinants of both classical business and growth cycles are not invariant to the prevailing exchange rate regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatma Pinar Erdem & Erdal Ozmen, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," ERC Working Papers 1404, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jun 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:met:wpaper:1404
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    Cited by:

    1. Erdal Özmen & Özge Doğanay Yaşar, 2015. "Emerging Markets Sovereign Bond Spreads, Credit Ratings and Global Financial Crisis," ERC Working Papers 1510, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2015.
    2. Fatma Erdem & Erdal Özmen, 2015. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 1041-1058, November.
    3. Erdal Ozmen & Duygu Yolcu-Karadam, 2014. "Structural Change in Turkish External Trade: Evidence from BEC Sectors," ERC Working Papers 1413, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Nov 2014.
    4. Michael F. Bleaney & Mo Tian & Lin Yin, 2017. "De Facto Exchange Rate Regime Classifications: An Evaluation," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 369-382, April.
    5. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Erdal Özmen, 2016. "Real Exchange Rates and Growth," ERC Working Papers 1609, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Sep 2016.
    6. Erdal Özmen & Fatma Taşdemir, 2018. "Gross Capital Inflows And Outflows: Twins Or Distant Cousins?," ERC Working Papers 1807, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2018.
    7. Özmen, Erdal & Doğanay Yaşar, Özge, 2016. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads, credit ratings and global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 93-101.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Exchange rate regimes; Emerging markets.;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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