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The contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to Latin America's business cycle

  • Boschi, Melisso
  • Girardi, Alessandro

This paper quantifies the relative contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to the fluctuation of domestic output in six key Latin American (LA) countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru. Using quarterly data over the period 1980:1-2003:4, a multi-variate, multi- country time series model was estimated to study the economic interdependence among LA countries and, in addition, between each of them and the three world largest industrial economies: the US, the Euro Area and Japan. Falsifying a common suspicion, it is shown that the proportion of LA countries' domestic output variability explained by industrial countries'factors is modest. By contrast, domestic and regional factors account for the main share of output variability at all simulation horizons. The implications for the choice of the exchange rate regime are also discussed.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28147.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28147
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  1. Sebastian Edwards, 2002. "The Great Exchange Rate Debate After Argentina," NBER Working Papers 9257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2000. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 062000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  9. Melisso Boschi, 2007. "Foreign capital in Latin America: A long-run structural Global VAR perspective," Economics Discussion Papers 647, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  10. Lanne, Markku & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2002. "Unit root tests for time series with level shifts: a comparison of different proposals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 109-114, March.
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  13. Banerjee, A. & Marcellino, M. & Osbat, C., 2000. "Some Cautions on the Use of Panel Methods for Integrated Series of Macro-economic Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/20, European University Institute.
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  16. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 383-97, August.
  17. Aiolfi, Marco & Catão, Luis A. V. & Timmermann, Allan G, 2010. "Common Factors in Latin America’s Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2002. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-38, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  19. Michael J. Artis, 2002. "Reflections on the Optimal Currency Area (OCA) criteria in the light of EMU," Working Papers 69, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
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  21. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  22. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Jorge Roldos, 1997. "Are Business Cycles Different in Asia and Latin America?," IMF Working Papers 97/9, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Ahmed, Shaghil, 2003. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 181-202, October.
  24. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
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