IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v67y2017icp248-260.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Understanding Chinese provincial real estate investment: A Global VAR perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Y.
  • He, M.
  • Rudkin, S.

Abstract

This article investigates the spatial interdependence within China's real estate industry, a sector assuming increasing importance in the national economy. The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model allows us to explicitly address the presence of spatial linkages, including spillover and backwash effects, without a stringent requirement on data. Applying the model to monthly Chinese provincial data for the first time we highlight clear advantages in forecasting and steady-state value prediction. We also demonstrate through the contemporaneous correlation coefficients a growing divide between the previously highly industrialized north and the rest of China. The insights provided by our empirical study have clear value to a wide range of audiences, including researchers, policy makers, and business investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Y. & He, M. & Rudkin, S., 2017. "Understanding Chinese provincial real estate investment: A Global VAR perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 248-260.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:248-260
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.12.019
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999316308793
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    2. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    3. Huayi Yu, 2015. "The spillovers and heterogeneous responses of housing prices: a GVAR analysis of China's 35 major cities," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 535-558, October.
    4. Karl Case & John Quigley, 2008. "How Housing Booms Unwind: Income Effects, Wealth Effects, and Feedbacks through Financial Markets," European Journal of Housing Policy, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 161-180.
    5. Chen, Anping & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2018. "The regional effects of macroeconomic shocks in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 139-154.
    6. Vansteenkiste, Isabel & Hiebert, Paul, 2011. "Do house price developments spillover across euro area countries? Evidence from a global VAR," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 299-314.
    7. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
    8. Thomas Chaney & David Sraer & David Thesmar, 2012. "The Collateral Channel: How Real Estate Shocks Affect Corporate Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2381-2409, October.
    9. Huang, Shuo & Fidrmuc, Jan & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2015. "Whither China? Reform and economic integration among Chinese regions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 94-110.
    10. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Mignon, Valérie & Sallenave, Audrey, 2015. "Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 232-247.
    11. Schanne, N. & Wapler, R. & Weyh, A., 2010. "Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 908-926, October.
    12. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    13. Yuanyan S Zhang & Steven A Barnett, 2014. "Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Risks from Local Government Finance in China," IMF Working Papers 2014/004, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Yinqiu Lu & Tao Sun, 2013. "Local Government Financing Platforms in China; A Fortune or Misfortune?," IMF Working Papers 2013/243, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2010. "Identifying the Global Transmission of the 2007-09 Financial Crisis in a GVAR Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 8093, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Ashvin Ahuja & Alla Myrvoda, 2012. "The Spillover Effects of a Downturn in China’s Real Estate Investment," IMF Working Papers 2012/266, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Chan, Steven & Han, Gaofeng & Zhang, Wenlang, 2016. "How strong are the linkages between real estate and other sectors in China?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 52-72.
    18. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    19. Dees, Stéphane, 2016. "Credit, asset prices and business cycles at the global level," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 139-152.
    20. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    21. Zhang, Chuanchuan, 2015. "Income inequality and access to housing: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 261-271.
    22. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2014. "Real estate valuation, current account and credit growth patterns, before and after the 2008–9 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 249-270.
    23. Favero, Carlo A., 2013. "Modelling and forecasting government bond spreads in the euro area: A GVAR model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 343-356.
    24. Boschi, Melisso & Girardi, Alessandro, 2011. "The contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to Latin America's business cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1235-1246, May.
    25. Koh, Winston T.H. & Mariano, Roberto S. & Pavlov, Andrey & Phang, Sock Yong & Tan, Augustine H.H. & Wachter, Susan M., 2005. "Bank lending and real estate in Asia: market optimism and asset bubbles," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1103-1118, January.
    26. Yongheng Deng & Randall Morck & Jing Wu & Bernard Yeung, 2015. "China’s Pseudo-monetary Policy," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 55-93.
    27. Chudik, Alexander & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Identifying the global transmission of the 2007-2009 financial crisis in a GVAR model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 325-339, April.
    28. Schanne, Norbert, 2015. "A Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model for regional labour markets and its forecasting performance with leading indicators in Germany," IAB Discussion Paper 201513, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    29. Ranoua Bouchouicha, 2012. "Linkages between real estate markets and the macroeconomy: A dynamic coherence framework," Post-Print halshs-00697157, HAL.
    30. Gatfaoui, Jamel & Girardin, Eric, 2015. "Comovement of Chinese provincial business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 294-306.
    31. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    32. Bouchouicha, Ranoua & Ftiti, Zied, 2012. "Real estate markets and the macroeconomy: A dynamic coherence framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1820-1829.
    33. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    34. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    35. Pfaff, Bernhard, 2008. "VAR, SVAR and SVEC Models: Implementation Within R Package vars," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i04).
    36. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-285, March.
    37. Nan Gao & Cheryl Xiaoning Long & Lixin Colin Xu, 2016. "Collective Leadership, Career Concern, and the Housing Market in China: The Role of Standing Committees," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 1-13, February.
    38. Jie Zhang & Jianhua Wang & Aiyong Zhu, 2012. "The relationship between real estate investment and economic growth in China: a threshold effect," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(1), pages 123-134, February.
    39. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    40. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Shields, Kalvinder, 2016. "Forecasting global recessions in a GVAR model of actual and expected output," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 374-390.
    41. He, Qing & Leung, Pak-Ho & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2013. "Factor-augmented VAR analysis of the monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-104.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mustafa ŞİT, 2019. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investments in Real Estate: Turkey Case," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 5(3), pages 789-795, 03-2019.
    2. Cao, Zheng & Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan, 2017. "Modelling the interdependence of tourism demand: The global vector autoregressive approach," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-13.
    3. Fengyun Liu & Chuanzhe Liu & Honghao Ren, 2018. "Urban Housing Price Fluctuations and Regional Systemic Financial Risks: Panel Spatial Economic Models in Jiangsu, China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(10), pages 1-17, September.
    4. Yushen Tian & Siqin Xiong & Xiaoming Ma, 2017. "Analysis of the Potential Impacts on China’s Industrial Structure in Energy Consumption," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(12), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Cai, Zhaoyang & Liu, Qing & Cao, Shixiong, 2020. "Real estate supports rapid development of China's urbanization," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Konstantinos Chisiridis & Kostas Mouratidis & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2018. "The North-South Divide, the Euro and the World," Working Papers 377, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
    2. Milcheva, Stanimira, 2013. "Cross-country effects of regulatory capital arbitrage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5329-5345.
    3. Samargandi, Nahla & Kutan, Ali M., 2016. "Private credit spillovers and economic growth: Evidence from BRICS countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 56-84.
    4. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2016. "Theory And Practice Of Gvar Modelling," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 165-197, February.
    5. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, 2013. "Housing cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations: A global perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 215-238.
    6. Kamiar Mohaddes & Mehdi Raissi, 2019. "The US oil supply revolution and the global economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1515-1546, November.
    7. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2015. "How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 128-145.
    8. Dees, Stéphane, 2016. "Credit, asset prices and business cycles at the global level," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 139-152.
    9. Boero, Gianna & Mandalinci, Zeyyad & Taylor, Mark P., 2019. "Modelling portfolio capital flows in a global framework: Multilateral implications of capital controls," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 142-160.
    10. Inoue,Tomoo & Kaya,Demet & Ohshige,Hitoshi, 2015. "The impact of China?s slowdown on the Asia Pacific region : an application of the GVAR model," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7442, The World Bank.
    11. Artha Hoxha, 2018. "Explaining the impact of the global financial crisis on European transition countries: a GVAR approach," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2-18, pages 81-97.
    12. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G. & Tsionas, Efthymios G. & Minou, Chrysanthi, 2015. "System estimation of GVAR with two dominants and network theory: Evidence for BRICs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 604-616.
    13. Adam Traczyk, 2013. "Financial integration and the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1267-1305, December.
    14. Nguyen, Anh D.M. & Dridi, Jemma & Unsal, Filiz D. & Williams, Oral H., 2017. "On the drivers of inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 71-84.
    15. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2014. "Transmission of the debt crisis: From EU15 to USA or vice versa? A GVAR approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-132.
    16. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    17. Dumrongrittikul, Taya & Anderson, Heather & Vahid, Farshid, 2019. "The global effects of productivity gains in Asian emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 127-140.
    18. Dovern, Jonas & Feldkircher, Martin & Huber, Florian, 2016. "Does joint modelling of the world economy pay off? Evaluating global forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 86-100.
    19. Osorio, Carolina & Unsal, D. Filiz, 2013. "Inflation dynamics in Asia: Causes, changes, and spillovers from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 26-40.
    20. Sona Benecka & Ludmila Fadejeva & Martin Feldkircher, 2018. "Spillovers from Euro Area Monetary Policy: A Focus on Emerging Europe," Working Papers 2018/04, Latvijas Banka.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chinese provincial linkages; Real estate investment; Global VAR; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:248-260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.