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Understanding Chinese provincial real estate investment: A Global VAR perspective

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  • Chen, Y.
  • He, M.
  • Rudkin, S.

Abstract

This article investigates the spatial interdependence within China's real estate industry, a sector assuming increasing importance in the national economy. The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model allows us to explicitly address the presence of spatial linkages, including spillover and backwash effects, without a stringent requirement on data. Applying the model to monthly Chinese provincial data for the first time we highlight clear advantages in forecasting and steady-state value prediction. We also demonstrate through the contemporaneous correlation coefficients a growing divide between the previously highly industrialized north and the rest of China. The insights provided by our empirical study have clear value to a wide range of audiences, including researchers, policy makers, and business investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Y. & He, M. & Rudkin, S., 2017. "Understanding Chinese provincial real estate investment: A Global VAR perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 248-260.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:248-260
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.12.019
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    Cited by:

    1. Mustafa ŞİT, 2019. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investments in Real Estate: Turkey Case," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 5(3), pages 789-795, 03-2019.
    2. Cao, Zheng & Li, Gang & Song, Haiyan, 2017. "Modelling the interdependence of tourism demand: The global vector autoregressive approach," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1-13.
    3. Fengyun Liu & Chuanzhe Liu & Honghao Ren, 2018. "Urban Housing Price Fluctuations and Regional Systemic Financial Risks: Panel Spatial Economic Models in Jiangsu, China," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(10), pages 1-1, September.
    4. Yushen Tian & Siqin Xiong & Xiaoming Ma, 2017. "Analysis of the Potential Impacts on China’s Industrial Structure in Energy Consumption," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(12), pages 1-1, December.
    5. Cai, Zhaoyang & Liu, Qing & Cao, Shixiong, 2020. "Real estate supports rapid development of China's urbanization," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chinese provincial linkages; Real estate investment; Global VAR; Forecasting;

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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