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China’s Pseudo-monetary Policy

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Listed:
  • Yongheng Deng
  • Randall Morck
  • Jing Wu
  • Bernard Yeung

Abstract

China’s monetary stimulation after the global financial crisis rapidly boosted its GDP. We argue that its efficacy derives from state control over its banking and corporate sectors. Beijing ordered state-owned banks to lend and they lent. Beijing ordered centrally-controlled state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to invest and they invested. Our data show much of this investment was highly leveraged purchases of real estate and land prices rises occurred where these SOEs were active buyers. This episode mimics the credit channel for monetary policy, but actually entails internal transfers between arms of the government pressuring on real estate prices upwards.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongheng Deng & Randall Morck & Jing Wu & Bernard Yeung, 2015. "China’s Pseudo-monetary Policy," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 55-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:19:y:2015:i:1:p:55-93.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Xing Su & Zhu Qian, 2020. "State Intervention in Land Supply and Its Impact on Real Estate Investment in China: Evidence from Prefecture-Level Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-15, January.
    2. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    3. Yongheng Deng & Eric Girardin & Roselyne Joyeux & Shuping Shi, 2017. "Did bubbles migrate from the stock to the housing market in China between 2005 and 2010?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 276-292, August.
    4. Chatterjee, Sris & Gu, Xian & Hasan, Iftekhar & Lu, Haitian, 2019. "Ownership structure and the cost of debt : Evidence from the Chinese corporate bond market," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    5. Tang, Huoqing & Zhang, Chengsi & Zhou, Hong, 2022. "Monetary policy surprises and investment of non-listed real sector firms in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 631-642.
    6. Chen, Sophia & Ratnovski, Lev & Tsai, Pi-Han, 2021. "Credit and fiscal multipliers in China: Evidence from a political economy based estimation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    7. Zheng, Gaoping & Wang, Shuxun & Xu, Yongxin, 2018. "Monetary stimulation, bank relationship and innovation: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 237-248.
    8. Chen, Y. & He, M. & Rudkin, S., 2017. "Understanding Chinese provincial real estate investment: A Global VAR perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 248-260.
    9. Atif Ansar & Bent Flyvbjerg & Alexander Budzier & Daniel Lunn, 2016. "Does infrastructure investment lead to economic growth or economic fragility? Evidence from China," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 32(3), pages 360-390.
    10. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Randall Morck & Bernard Yeung, 2017. "East Asian Financial and Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 23845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2018. "The Financing of Local Government in the People’s Republic of China: Stimulus Loan Wanes and Shadow Banking Waxes," ADBI Working Papers 800, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    13. Junhong Chu & Yige Duan & Xianling Yang & Li Wang, 2021. "The Last Mile Matters: Impact of Dockless Bike Sharing on Subway Housing Price Premium," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(1), pages 297-316, January.
    14. Deng, Yongheng & Girardin, Eric & Joyeux, Roselyne, 2018. "Fundamentals and the volatility of real estate prices in China: A sequential modelling strategy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 205-222.
    15. Peter J Buckley & L Jeremy Clegg & Hinrich Voss & Adam R Cross & Xin Liu & Ping Zheng, 2018. "A retrospective and agenda for future research on Chinese outward foreign direct investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(1), pages 4-23, January.
    16. Yang, Jian & Yu, Ziliang & Deng, Yongheng, 2018. "Housing price spillovers in China: A high-dimensional generalized VAR approach," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 98-114.
    17. Shen, Jianfu & Firth, Michael & Poon, Winnie P.H., 2016. "Credit Expansion, Corporate Finance and Overinvestment: Recent Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 16-27.
    18. Rajdeep Chakraborti & Sandeep Dahiya & Lei Ge & Pedro Gete, 2022. "Credit Stimulus, Executive Ownership, and Firm Leverage," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(10), pages 7682-7700, October.
    19. Jia, Junxue & Ma, Guangrong & Qin, Cong & Wang, Liyan, 2020. "Place-based policies, state-led industrialisation, and regional development: Evidence from China's Great Western Development Programme," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    20. Qiankun Gu & Jeong‐Bon Kim & Ke Liao & Yi Si, 2023. "Decentralising for local information? Evidence from state‐owned listed firms in China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(5), pages 5245-5276, December.

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