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Monetary and Fiscal Stimuli, Ownership Structure, and China's Housing Market

Author

Listed:
  • Deng, Yongheng

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Morck, Randall

    (University of Alberta and NBER)

  • Wu, Jing

    (National University of Singapore and Tsinghua University)

  • Yeung, Bernard

    (National University of Singapore)

Abstract

In the recent financial crisis, macroeconomic stimuli produced mixed results across developed economies. In contrast, China's stimulus boosted real GDP growth from an annualized 6.2% in the first quarter of 2009 trough to 11.9% in the first quarter of 2010. Amidst this phenomenal response, land auction and house prices in major cities soared. We argue that the speed and efficacy of China's stimulus derives from state control over its banking system and corporate sector. Beijing ordered state-owned banks to lend, and they lent. Beijing ordered centrally-controlled state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to invest, and they invested. However, our data show that much of this investment was highly leveraged purchases of real estate. Residential land auction prices in eight major cities rose about 100% in 2009, controlling for quality variation. Moreover, higher price rises occur these SOEs are more active buyers. We argue that these centrally-controlled SOEs overbid substantially, fueling a real estate bubble; and that China's seemingly highly effective macroeconomic stimulus package may well have induced costly resource misallocation.

Suggested Citation

  • Deng, Yongheng & Morck, Randall & Wu, Jing & Yeung, Bernard, 2011. "Monetary and Fiscal Stimuli, Ownership Structure, and China's Housing Market," Ratio Working Papers 173, The Ratio Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ratioi:0173
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary stimuli; Fiscal Stimuli; Ownership Structure; Housing Market; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • P27 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Performance and Prospects
    • P34 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Finance

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