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Fiscal multipliers in good times and bad times

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  • Peren Arin, K.
  • Koray, Faik
  • Spagnolo, Nicola

Abstract

This paper estimates the magnitudes of government spending and tax multipliers within a regime-switching framework for the U.S. economy during the period 1949:1–2006:4. Our results show that the magnitudes of spending multipliers are larger during periods of low economic activity, while the magnitudes of tax multipliers are larger during periods of high economic activity. We also show that the magnitudes of fiscal multipliers got smaller for episodes of low growth, while they got larger for episodes of high growth in the post 1980 period. Analyzing the effects of government spending and taxes on consumption and investment spending indicates that the magnitude of the effects of fiscal shocks on consumption and investment is very small.

Suggested Citation

  • Peren Arin, K. & Koray, Faik & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2015. "Fiscal multipliers in good times and bad times," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 303-311.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:44:y:2015:i:c:p:303-311
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2015.01.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sims, Eric & Wolff, Jonathan, 2018. "The state-dependent effects of tax shocks," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 57-85.
    2. repec:rej:journl:v:21:y:2018:i:70:p:2-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gilles Dufrénot & Aurélia Jambois & Laurine Jambois & Guillaume Khayat, 2016. "Regime-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers in the United States," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 923-944, November.
    4. Pragidis, I.C. & Tsintzos, P. & Plakandaras, B., 2018. "Asymmetric effects of government spending shocks during the financial cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 372-387.
    5. Mark Setterfield, 2015. "Time variation in the size of the multiplier: a Kalecki-Harrod approach," Working Papers 1522, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2017.
    6. Eduardo A. Haddad & Natalia Q. Cotarelli, Vinicius A. Vale, 2018. "On the Numerical Structure of Local and Nationwide Government Spending Multipliers: What Can We Learn from the Greek Crisis?," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_05, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    7. repec:eee:jmacro:v:56:y:2018:i:c:p:340-360 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Simon Naitram & Justin Carter & Shane Lowe, 2015. "Three states of fiscal multipliers in a small open economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(1), pages 720-728.
    9. repec:eee:jmacro:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:71-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Párraga Rodríguez, Susana, 2018. "The dynamic effects of public expenditure shocks in the United States," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 340-360.
    11. Djuric, Uros & Neugart, Michael, 2017. "Helicopter money: survey evidence on expectation formation and consumption behavior," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168062, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multipliers; Regime switching;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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