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Household leverage and fiscal multipliers

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  • Javier Andrés

    () (Universidad de Valencia)

  • José Boscá

    () (Universidad de Valencia)

  • Francisco Ferri

    () (Universidad de Valencia)

Abstract

We study the size of fiscal multipliers in response to a government spending shock under different household leverage conditions in a general equilibrium setting with search and matching frictions. We allow for different levels of household indebtedness by changing the intensive margin of borrowing (loan-to-value ratio), as well as the extensive margin, defined as the number of borrowers over total population. The interaction between the consumption decisions of agents with limited access to credit and the process of wage bargaining and vacancy posting delivers two main results: (a) higher initial leverage makes it more likely to find output multipliers higher than one; and (b) a positive government expenditure shock always produces a positive multiplier for vacancies and employment. The latter result is in sharp contrast to models in which some households do not have access to the financial market (RoT consumers), in which the implied labor market responses to fiscal shocks are inconsistent with the empirical evidence. We also find that the impact on GDP of consolidations is lower when consumers have a more limited capacity to borrow, and that increasing government spending in an episode of intense private deleveraging can still generate positive and significant effects on consumption and output, although the fiscal output (employment) multiplier decreases (increases) with the intensity of the credit crunch. In the model with indebted impatient households we also observe that output (employment) multipliers decrease (increase) markedly with the degree of shock persistence and increase with the degree of price stickiness.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Andrés & José Boscá & Francisco Ferri, 2012. "Household leverage and fiscal multipliers," Working Papers 1215, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1215
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:wly:jmoncb:v:49:y:2017:i:6:p:1247-1271 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Javier Andrés & José E. Boscá & Javier Ferri, 2016. "Instruments, rules, and household debt: the effects of fiscal policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 419-443.
    3. Surico, Paolo & Trezzi, Riccardo, 2015. "Consumer Spending and Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from a Housing Tax Experiment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 20 Jan 2016.
    4. Pablo Hernández de Cos & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers in turbulent times: the case of Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 1589-1625, June.
    5. Cloyne, James & Surico, Paolo, 2013. "Household Debt and the Dynamic Effects of Income Tax Changes," CEPR Discussion Papers 9649, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Jose Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2015. "Plan E: la estrategia keynesiana frente a la crisis en España," Revista de Economía Crítica, Asociación de Economía Crítica, vol. 20, pages 4-22.
    7. Krzysztof Makarski, 2017. "Mnożniki fiskalne w modelu z ograniczeniami kredytowymi," GRAPE Working Papers 13, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    8. Hashmat Khan & Abeer Reza, 2017. "House Prices and Government Spending Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1247-1271, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multipliers; private leverage; labour market search;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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