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Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap

  • Veronica Guerrieri
  • Guido Lorenzoni

We study the effects of a credit crunch on consumer spending in a heterogeneous-agent incomplete-market model. After an unexpected permanent tightening in consumers' borrowing capacity, some consumers are forced to deleverage and others increase their precautionary savings. This depresses interest rates, especially in the short run, and generates an output drop, even with flexible prices. The output drop is larger with nominal rigidities, if the zero lower bound prevents the interest rate from adjusting downwards. Adding durable goods to the model, households take larger debt positions and the output response may be larger.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 17583.

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Date of creation: Nov 2011
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17583
Note: EFG ME
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  1. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
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  12. Joseph Gruber & Robert Martin, 2003. "Precautionary savings and the wealth distribution with illiquid durables," International Finance Discussion Papers 773, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Hintermaier, Thomas & Koeniger, Winfried, 2010. "The method of endogenous gridpoints with occasionally binding constraints among endogenous variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2074-2088, October.
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  15. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2011. "Credit Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Economy with Production Heterogeneity," NBER Working Papers 17311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Aysegul Sahin, 2009. "Labor-Market Matching with Precautionary Savings and Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 15282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Floden, M. & Linde, J., 1998. "Idiosyncratic Risk in the U.S. and Sweden: Is there a Role for Government Insurance?," Papers 654, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  18. John V. Leahy & Joseph Zeira, 2005. "The Timing of Purchases and Aggregate Fluctuations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1151.
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