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Can Public Debt Crowd in Private Investment?

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  • Christian Bayer
  • Fabio Stohler

Abstract

If households self‐select into a risky high‐income state through investment, increased government debt can stimulate investment and improve welfare. In a heterogeneous agent endogenous growth model, government debt helps households smooth consumption and encourages investment in risky, high‐return assets, crowding in aggregate growth. However, when debt becomes excessive, capital crowding out and distortionary taxation negate these benefits. Using a model calibrated to U.S. data, we show that this crowding‐in effect suggests a higher optimal debt‐to‐GDP ratio than currently observed.

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  • Christian Bayer & Fabio Stohler, 2025. "Can Public Debt Crowd in Private Investment?," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2025_691, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2025_691
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    File URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp691
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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