How Risky Are Recessions for Top Earners?
How sensitive are the earnings of top earners to business cycles? And, how does the business cycle sensitivity of top earners vary by industry? We use a confidential dataset on earnings histories of US males from the Social Security Administration. On average, individuals in the top 1% of the earnings distribution are slightly more cyclical than the population average. But there are large differences across sectors: Top earners in Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE) and Construction face substantial business cycle volatility, whereas those in Services (who make up 40% of individuals in the top 1 percent) have earnings that are less cyclical than the average worker.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published as Fatih Guvenen & Greg Kaplan & Jae Song, 2014. "How Risky Are Recessions for Top Earners?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 148-53, May.|
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- Fatih Guvenen & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2014.
"The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(3), pages 621 - 660.
- Fatih Guvenen & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2012. "The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk," NBER Working Papers 18035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fatih Guvenen & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2012. "The nature of countercyclical income risk," Staff Report 476, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Fatih Guvenen & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2013. "The nature of countercyclical income risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jon Bakija & Adam Cole & Bradley Heim, 2008. "Jobs and Income Growth of Top Earners and the Causes of Changing Income Inequality: Evidence from U.S. Tax Return Data," Department of Economics Working Papers 2010-22, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised Jan 2012.
- Gerald Auten & Geoffrey Gee & Nicholas Turner, 2013. "Income Inequality, Mobility, and Turnover at the Top in the US, 1987-2010," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 168-72, May.
- Wojciech Kopczuk & Emmanuel Saez & Jae Song, 2010. "Earnings Inequality and Mobility in the United States: Evidence from Social Security Data since 1937," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(1), pages 91-128, February.
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