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The Dynamics of Earnings in Germany: Evidence from Social Security Records

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  • Giesecke, Matthias
  • Bönke, Timm
  • Lüthen, Holger

Abstract

We examine patterns of earnings volatility for male employees who are subject to statutory social security contributions in West Germany over the period 1986 - 2005. For this purpose, we analyse individual records covering highly reliable earnings biographies provided by the German Social Security Administration. We decompose earnings into permanent and transitory components and estimate parameters of the underlying variance-covariance structure of the earnings components model. This provides insights into the mechanics of earnings dynamics of the German labour market. We find evidence for increasing overall volatility which is predominantly driven by the permanent earnings component and therefore indicates increasing earnings inequality.

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  • Giesecke, Matthias & Bönke, Timm & Lüthen, Holger, 2011. "The Dynamics of Earnings in Germany: Evidence from Social Security Records," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48692, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc11:48692
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    1. SOLOGON Denisa & VAN KERM Philippe, 2014. "Earnings dynamics, foreign workers and the stability of inequality trends in Luxembourg 1988-2009," LISER Working Paper Series 2014-03, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    2. Fatih Guvenen & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2014. "The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(3), pages 621-660.
    3. Chauvel Louis & Hartung Anne & Palmisano Flaviana, 2019. "Dynamics of Individual Income Rank Volatility: Evidence from West Germany and the US," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 1-22, April.
    4. Mirko Felchner, 2015. "Einkommensdynamik bei Selbständigen als Freie Berufe und abhängig Beschäftigte Eine dynamische Paneldatenschätzung mit Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels," FFB-Discussionpaper 101, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
    5. Seckler, Matthias, 2019. "Increasing inequality in lifetime earnings: A tale of educational upgrading and changing employment patterns," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 119, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    6. Bönke, Timm & Harnack, Astrid & Wetter, Miriam, 2019. "Wer gewinnt? Wer verliert? Die Entwicklung auf dem deutschen Arbeitsmarkt seit den frühen Jahren der Bundesrepublik bis heute," Discussion Papers 2019/4, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    7. Bachmann, Ronald & Felder, Rahel & Tamm, Marcus, 2018. "Labour market participation and atypical employment over the life cycle: A cohort analysis for Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 786, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Paula Garda & Volker Ziemann, 2014. "Economic Policies and Microeconomic Stability: A Literature Review and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1115, OECD Publishing.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings Inequality; Earnings Dynamics; Variance Decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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