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The Dynamics and Inequality of Italian Men’s Earnings: Long-term Changes or Transitory Fluctuations?

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  • Lorenzo Cappellari

Abstract

This paper provides a longitudinal perspective on changes in Italian men’s earnings inequality since the late 1970s by decomposing the earnings autocovariance structure into its long-term and transitory parts. Cross-sectional earnings differentials grew over the period and the longitudinal analysis shows that such growth was determined by the long-term earnings component. Using parameter estimates to analyze low-pay probabilities shows that low-pay persistence and the probability of repeated low-pay episodes grew for all birth cohorts during the early 1990s. Moreover, long-term heterogeneity is found to characterize the earnings distribution of nonmanual workers, accounting for a large part of overall heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Cappellari, 2004. "The Dynamics and Inequality of Italian Men’s Earnings: Long-term Changes or Transitory Fluctuations?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 39(2).
  • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:39:y:2004:i:2:p475-499
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. Baker, Michael, 1997. "Growth-Rate Heterogeneity and the Covariance Structure of Life-Cycle Earnings," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(2), pages 338-375, April.
    8. Christopher J. Flinn, 2002. "Labour Market Structure and Inequality: A Comparison of Italy and the U.S," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 611-645.
    9. Xavier Ramos, 2003. "The Covariance Structure of Earnings in Great Britain, 1991-1999," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(278), pages 353-374, May.
    10. Hause, John C, 1980. "The Fine Structure of Earnings and the On-the-Job Training Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 1013-1029, May.
    11. Cappellari, Lorenzo, 2002. " Do the 'Working Poor' Stay Poor? An Analysis of Low Pay Transitions in Italy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(2), pages 87-110, May.
    12. Levy, Frank & Murnane, Richard J, 1992. "U.S. Earnings Levels and Earnings Inequality: A Review of Recent Trends and Proposed Explanations," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 1333-1381, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lorenzo Cappellari, 2011. "Flexicurity, wage dynamics and inequality over the life-cycle," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia dell'Impresa e del Lavoro ieil0064, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    2. Aedín Doris & Donal O’Neill & Olive Sweetman, 2013. "Identification of the covariance structure of earnings using the GMM estimator," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 11(3), pages 343-372, September.
    3. Paul Bingley & Lorenzo Cappellari & Niels Westergård‐Nielsen, 2013. "Unemployment Insurance, Wage Dynamics and Inequality Over the Life Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 341-372, May.
    4. Dimitris Pavlopoulos, 2009. "Starting Your Career with a Temporary Job: Stepping Stone or "Dead-End"?," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 228, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    5. Magnac, Thierry & Pistolesi, Nicolas & Roux, Sébastien, 2013. "Post schooling human capital investments and the life cycle variance of earnings," TSE Working Papers 13-380, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Giesecke, Matthias & Bönke, Timm & Lüthen, Holger, 2011. "The Dynamics of Earnings in Germany: Evidence from Social Security Records," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48692, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Higgins, Tim & Sinning, Mathias, 2013. "Modeling income dynamics for public policy design: An application to income contingent student loans," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 273-285.
    8. Matz Dahlberg & Magnus Gustavsson, 2008. "Inequality and Crime: Separating the Effects of Permanent and Transitory Income," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 129-153, April.
    9. Charles M. Beach & Ross Finnie & David Gray, 2010. "Long-Run Inequality And Short-Run Instability Of Men'S And Women'S Earnings In Canada," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(3), pages 572-596, September.
    10. R. Alessie & A.S. Kalwij, 2003. "Permanent and Transitory Wage Inequality of British Men, 1975-2001: Year, Age and Cohort Effects," Working Papers 03-04, Utrecht School of Economics.
    11. Stephen Jenkins & Peter Lambert, 2011. "Robert Moffitt and Peter Gottschalk’s 1995 paper ‘Trends in the covariance structure of earnings in the US: 1969–1987’," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 9(3), pages 433-437, September.
    12. Lorenzo Cappellari & Marco Leonardi, 2016. "Earnings Instability and Tenure," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 118(2), pages 202-234, April.
    13. Mirko Felchner, 2015. "Einkommensdynamik bei Selbständigen als Freie Berufe und abhängig Beschäftigte Eine dynamische Paneldatenschätzung mit Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels," FFB-Discussionpaper 101, Research Institute on Professions (Forschungsinstitut Freie Berufe (FFB)), LEUPHANA University Lüneburg.
    14. repec:aia:aiaswp:wp18 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Zhong Zhao, 2010. "Earnings Instability and Earnings Inequality in Urban China: 1989–2006," Working Papers id:2783, eSocialSciences.
    16. Markus Pannenberg & Martin Spiess, 2009. "GEE estimation of the covariance structure of a bivariate panel data model with an application to wage dynamics and the incidence of profit-sharing in West Germany," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 93(4), pages 427-447, December.

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