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Does the Labor-Income Process Contain a Unit Root? Evidence from Individual-Specific Time Series

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  • Gustavsson, Magnus

    (Department of Economics)

  • Österholm, Pär

    (National Institute of Economic Research)

Abstract

Employing econometric methods for univariate time series, this paper investigates the empirical validity of assuming a unit root in individuals’ labor-income processes. Using a Swedish register-based longitudinal dataset which allows us to follow a cohort of workers from 1968 to 2005, we are able to obtain distributions of median unbiased estimates of localto- unity parameters. The results indicate that earnings for the representative worker are governed by a process where shocks to earnings have fairly high persistence but are both economically and statistically significantly different from having permanent effects; that is, the largest autoregressive root is less than unity. These results add to the studies that question the heavy use of unit-root processes for earnings in calibrations of life-cycle models.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavsson, Magnus & Österholm, Pär, 2010. "Does the Labor-Income Process Contain a Unit Root? Evidence from Individual-Specific Time Series," Working Paper Series 2010:21, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2010_021
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    Cited by:

    1. Holmberg, Johan, 2021. "Earnings and Labor Market Dynamics: Indirect Inference Based on Swedish Register Data," Umeå Economic Studies 984, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    2. Fatih Guvenen, 2011. "Macroeconomics with hetereogeneity : a practical guide," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 97(3Q), pages 255-326.
    3. Owen Freestone, 2018. "The Drivers of Life‐Cycle Wage Inequality in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(307), pages 424-444, December.
    4. Gustafsson, Johan & Holmberg, Johan, 2019. "Earning dynamics in Sweden: The recent evolution of permanent inequality and earnings volatility," Umeå Economic Studies 963, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    5. Alexander Plum & Gail Pacheco & Kabir Dasgupta, 2021. "When There is No Way Up: Reconsidering Low‐paid Jobs as Stepping‐stones," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(318), pages 387-409, September.
    6. repec:fip:fedreq:y:2011:i:3q:p:255-326:n:vol.97no.3 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gustafsson, Johan & Holmberg, Johan, 2022. "Permanent and transitory earnings dynamics and lifetime income inequality in Sweden," Umeå Economic Studies 1005, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    8. Kazufumi Yamana, 2016. "Structural Household Finance," Discussion papers ron279, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    9. Sarah Meyer & Mark Trede, 2016. "Explosive earnings dynamics: Whoever has will be given more," CQE Working Papers 4716, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Idiosyncratic income risk; Unit-root model; Earnings dynamics; Local-to-unity parameter;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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