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Trends in the Transitory Variance of Male Earnings in the U.S., 1970-2004

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Moffitt

    (Johns Hopkins University)

  • Peter Gottschalk

    () (Boston College)

Abstract

We estimate the trend in the transitory variance of male earnings in the U.S. using the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1970 to 2004. Using both an error components model as well as simpler but more approximate methods, we find that the transitory variance increased substantially in the 1980’s and then remained at this new higher level through 2004 We also find a strong cyclical component to the transitory variance. Its increase accounts for between 30 and 65 percent of the total rise in cross-sectional variance, depending on the time period. The cross-sectional variance has recently increased but this reflects a rise in the variance of the permanent component, not the transitory component. Increases in transitory variance occurred for less educated in the early 1980s and for more educated workers in the later 1980s and early 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Moffitt & Peter Gottschalk, 2008. "Trends in the Transitory Variance of Male Earnings in the U.S., 1970-2004," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 697, Boston College Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:697
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Joseph G. Altonji & Anthony A. Smith Jr. & Ivan Vidangos, 2013. "Modeling Earnings Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1395-1454, July.
    2. Lorenzo Cappellari, 2011. "Flexicurity, wage dynamics and inequality over the life-cycle," DISCE - Quaderni dell'Istituto di Economia dell'Impresa e del Lavoro ieil0064, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    3. Magnac, Thierry & Pistolesi, Nicolas & Roux, Sébastien, 2013. "Post schooling human capital investments and the life cycle variance of earnings," TSE Working Papers 13-380, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    4. Till Treeck, 2014. "Did Inequality Cause The U.S. Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 421-448, July.
    5. Jeffrey Brown & Chichun Fang & Francisco Gomes, 2012. "Risk and Returns to Education," NBER Working Papers 18300, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Ivan Vidangos & Joseph Altonji, 2014. "Marriage Dynamics, Earnings Dynamics, and Lifetime Family Income," 2014 Meeting Papers 1230, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. van Treeck, Till. & Sturn, Simon., 2012. "Income inequality as a cause of the Great Recession? : A survey of current debates," ILO Working Papers 994709343402676, International Labour Organization.
    8. Till van Treeck, 2012. "Did inequality cause the U.S. financial crisis?," IMK Working Paper 91-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    9. Sabelhaus, John & Song, Jae, 2009. "Earnings Volatility Across Groups and Time," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 62(2), pages 347-364, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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