IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_9117.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Earnings Dynamics in Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Ana Sofia Pessoa

Abstract

This paper documents earnings dynamics over the life-cycle and income level using a large administrative database from German tax records. I find that labor earnings display important deviations from the typical assumptions of linearity and normality. For the bottom earners, large income changes are driven equally by hours and wages which is consistent with transitions between labor status or jobs, whereas for those at the top, earnings changes are mainly induced by wage rate growth. There are also asymmetries in mean reversion of earnings growth mainly driven by the asymmetric hours dynamics. Finally, there is no evidence of an added-worker effect but government insurance and income pooling can mitigate the pass-through of individual earnings changes to the household level and attenuate the deviations from normality of the male earnings growth distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Ana Sofia Pessoa, 2021. "Earnings Dynamics in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 9117, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9117
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp9117.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seth Pruitt & Nicholas Turner, 2020. "Earnings Risk in the Household: Evidence from Millions of US Tax Returns," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 237-254, June.
    2. Hoffmann, Eran B. & Malacrino, Davide, 2019. "Employment time and the cyclicality of earnings growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 160-171.
    3. André Kurmann & Erika McEntarfer, 2019. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity in the United States: New Evidence from Worker-Firm Linked Data," Working Papers 19-07, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    4. Storesletten, Kjetil & Halvorsen, Elin & Holter, Hans & Ozkan, Serdar, 2020. "Dissecting Idiosyncratic Earnings Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 15395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. De Nardi, Mariacristina & Fella, Giulio & ,, 2020. "Wage Risk and Government and Spousal Insurance," CEPR Discussion Papers 15608, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Blundell, Richard & Graber, Michael & Mogstad, Magne, 2015. "Labor income dynamics and the insurance from taxes, transfers, and the family," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 58-73.
    7. Richard Blundell & Ian Preston, 1998. "Consumption Inequality and Income Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(2), pages 603-640.
    8. Joachim Hubmer, 2018. "The Job Ladder and its Implications for Earnings Risk," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 172-194, July.
    9. Hamish Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2010. "Wage Risk and Employment Risk over the Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1432-1467, September.
    10. Fatih Guvenen & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2014. "The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(3), pages 621-660.
    11. Manuel Arellano & Richard Blundell & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2017. "Earnings and Consumption Dynamics: A Nonlinear Panel Data Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 693-734, May.
    12. Henrik Kleven & Camille Landais & Johanna Posch & Andreas Steinhauer & Josef Zweimüller, 2019. "Child Penalties across Countries: Evidence and Explanations," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 122-126, May.
    13. Charlotte Bartels & Timm Bönke, 2013. "Can Households And Welfare States Mitigate Rising Earnings Instability?," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59(2), pages 250-282, June.
    14. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "Consumption and Labor Supply with Partial Insurance: An Analytical Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2075-2126, July.
    15. De Nardi, Mariacristina & Fella, Giulio & Knoef, Marike & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Van Ooijen, Raun, 2021. "Family and government insurance: Wage, earnings, and income risks in the Netherlands and the U.S," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    16. Attanasio, Orazio & Davis, Steven J, 1996. "Relative Wage Movements and the Distribution of Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1227-1262, December.
    17. Christopher Busch & David Domeij & Fatih Guvenen & Rocio Madera, 2018. "Asymmetric Business-Cycle Risk and Social Insurance," NBER Working Papers 24569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Jonathan A. Parker & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2010. "The Increase in Income Cyclicality of High-Income Households and Its Relation to the Rise in Top Income Shares," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(2 (Fall)), pages 1-70.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joseph Altonji & Disa Hynsjo & Ivan Vidangos, 2023. "Individual Earnings and Family Income: Dynamics and Distribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 225-250, July.
    2. Storesletten, Kjetil & Halvorsen, Elin & Holter, Hans & Ozkan, Serdar, 2020. "Dissecting Idiosyncratic Earnings Risk," CEPR Discussion Papers 15395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2021. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal About Lifecycle Earnings Dynamics?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(5), pages 2303-2339, September.
    4. Theloudis, Alexandros, 2021. "Consumption inequality across heterogeneous families," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Pora, Pierre & Wilner, Lionel, 2020. "A decomposition of labor earnings growth: Recovering Gaussianity?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Hoffmann, Eran B. & Malacrino, Davide, 2019. "Employment time and the cyclicality of earnings growth," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 160-171.
    7. Ursula Mello & Tomas Rodriguez Martinez, 2020. "Trade-induced local labor market shocks and asymmetrical labor income risk," Economics Working Papers 1764, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    8. Elin Halvorsen & Serdar Ozkan & Sergio Salgado, 2022. "Earnings dynamics and its intergenerational transmission: Evidence from Norway," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1707-1746, November.
    9. Ghosh, Anisha & Theloudis, Alexandros, 2023. "Consumption Partial Insurance in the Presence of Tail Income Risk," Other publications TiSEM c8da0a17-57cb-40bf-ab61-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Eran B. Hoffmann & Mr. Davide Malacrino, 2018. "Employment Time and the Cyclicality of Earnings Growth," IMF Working Papers 2018/115, International Monetary Fund.
    11. De Nardi, Mariacristina & Fella, Giulio & Knoef, Marike & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Van Ooijen, Raun, 2021. "Family and government insurance: Wage, earnings, and income risks in the Netherlands and the U.S," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    12. Giesecke, Matthias & Bönke, Timm & Lüthen, Holger, 2011. "The Dynamics of Earnings in Germany: Evidence from Social Security Records," VfS Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48692, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Audra Bowlus & Émilien Gouin‐Bonenfant & Huju Liu & Lance Lochner & Youngmin Park, 2022. "Four decades of Canadian earnings inequality and dynamics across workers and firms," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1447-1491, November.
    14. Silvia Avram & Mike Brewer & Paul Fisher & Laura Fumagalli, 2022. "Household Earnings and Income Volatility in the UK, 2009–2017," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 20(2), pages 345-369, June.
    15. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2009. "Quantitative Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Households," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 319-354, May.
    16. Christopher Busch & David Domeij & Fatih Guvenen & Rocio Madera, 2022. "Skewed Idiosyncratic Income Risk over the Business Cycle: Sources and Insurance," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 207-242, April.
    17. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Rising Wage Inequality in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(4), pages 681-722, August.
    18. Pierre Pora & Lionel Wilner, 2017. "The individual dynamics of wage income in France during the crisis," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 494-495-4, pages 179-199.
    19. Jeanne Commault, 2016. "How Does Nondurable Consumption Respond To Transitory Income Shocks? Reconciling Natural Experiments and Structural Estimations," Working Papers hal-01328904, HAL.
    20. Edmund Crawley & Martin Holm & Håkon Tretvoll, 2022. "A Parsimonious Model of Idiosyncratic Income," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-026, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    earnings dynamics; earnings risk; insurance; wages; hours; higher-order earnings risk; skewness; kurtosis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9117. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.