IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp17568.html

Moderation in Higher-Order Earnings Risk? Evidence from German Cohorts

Author

Listed:
  • Isaak, Niklas

    (RWI)

  • Jessen, Robin

    (RWI)

Abstract

Women born later experience greater earnings growth volatility at given ages than older cohorts. This implies a welfare loss due to increased earnings risk. However, German registry data for the years 2001-2016 reveal a moderation in higher-order earnings risk: Men and women born later face higher skewness in earnings changes, indicating fewer large decreases than increases, and lower kurtosis at younger ages, implying fewer large earnings changes. These trends point at a welfare increase and persist for 5-year earnings changes, which are more reflective of persistent changes. During the Great Recession, males' skewness dropped sharply; younger women were unaffected.

Suggested Citation

  • Isaak, Niklas & Jessen, Robin, 2024. "Moderation in Higher-Order Earnings Risk? Evidence from German Cohorts," IZA Discussion Papers 17568, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17568
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp17568.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Blundell & Monica Costa Dias & Costas Meghir & Jonathan Shaw, 2016. "Female Labor Supply, Human Capital, and Welfare Reform," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1705-1753, September.
    2. Fatih Guvenen & Luigi Pistaferri & Giovanni L. Violante, 2022. "Global trends in income inequality and income dynamics: New insights from GRID," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1321-1360, November.
    3. Ghosh, Anisha & Theloudis, Alexandros, 2023. "Consumption Partial Insurance in the Presence of Tail Income Risk," Discussion Paper 2023-024, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    4. Moritz Drechsel‐Grau & Andreas Peichl & Kai D. Schmid & Johannes F. Schmieder & Hannes Walz & Stefanie Wolter, 2022. "Inequality and income dynamics in Germany," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1593-1635, November.
    5. Christopher Busch & Alexander Ludwig, 2024. "Higher‐Order Income Risk Over The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1105-1131, August.
    6. Blundell, Richard & Graber, Michael & Mogstad, Magne, 2015. "Labor income dynamics and the insurance from taxes, transfers, and the family," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 58-73.
    7. Guvenen, Fatih & Ozkan, Serdar & Madera, Rocio, 2024. "Consumption dynamics and welfare under non-Gaussian earnings risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    8. Sabelhaus, John & Song, Jae, 2010. "The great moderation in micro labor earnings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 391-403, May.
    9. Richard Blundell & Luigi Pistaferri & Ian Preston, 2008. "Consumption Inequality and Partial Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1887-1921, December.
    10. Eran B. Hoffmann & Davide Malacrino & Luigi Pistaferri, 2022. "Earnings dynamics and labor market reforms: The Italian case," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1637-1667, November.
    11. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante, 2010. "How Much Consumption Insurance beyond Self-Insurance?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 53-87, October.
    12. Christopher Busch & David Domeij & Fatih Guvenen & Rocio Madera, 2022. "Skewed Idiosyncratic Income Risk over the Business Cycle: Sources and Insurance," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 207-242, April.
    13. Ellguth, Peter & Kohaut, Susanne, 2019. "Tarifbindung und betriebliche Interessenvertretung: Ergebnisse aus dem IAB-Betriebspanel 2018," WSI-Mitteilungen, Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG, vol. 72(4), pages 290-297.
    14. Hauck, Tobias & Wallossek, Luisa, 2024. "Optional (non-)filing and effective taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    15. Elin Halvorsen & Hans A Holter & Serdar Ozkan & Kjetil Storesletten, 2024. "Dissecting Idiosyncratic Earnings Risk," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 617-668.
    16. Mariacristina De Nardi & Giulio Fella & Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, 2020. "Nonlinear Household Earnings Dynamics, Self-Insurance, and Welfare," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 890-926.
    17. Manuel Arellano & Richard Blundell & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2017. "Earnings and Consumption Dynamics: A Nonlinear Panel Data Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 693-734, May.
    18. Fatih Guvenen & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2014. "The Nature of Countercyclical Income Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(3), pages 621-660.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nuno Alves & Carlos Martins, 2025. "The anatomy of household income dynamics in Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Jose Garcia-Louzao & Linas Tarasonis, 2025. "Earnings Inequality and Risk over Two Decades of Economic Development in Lithuania," GRAPE Working Papers 105, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    3. Guvenen, Fatih & Ozkan, Serdar & Madera, Rocio, 2024. "Consumption dynamics and welfare under non-Gaussian earnings risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    4. Christopher Busch & Alexander Ludwig, 2024. "Higher‐Order Income Risk Over The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1105-1131, August.
    5. Ursula Mello & Tomas Rodriguez Martinez, 2020. "Trade-induced local labor market shocks and asymmetrical labor income risk," Economics Working Papers 1764, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    6. Fatih Guvenen & Luigi Pistaferri & Giovanni L. Violante, 2022. "Global trends in income inequality and income dynamics: New insights from GRID," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1321-1360, November.
    7. Elin Halvorsen & Serdar Ozkan & Sergio Salgado, 2022. "Earnings dynamics and its intergenerational transmission: Evidence from Norway," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1707-1746, November.
    8. Tao Wang, 2023. "Perceived versus Calibrated Income Risks in Heterogeneous-Agent Consumption Models," Staff Working Papers 23-59, Bank of Canada.
    9. Edmund Crawley & Martin Holm & Håkon Tretvoll, 2022. "A Parsimonious Model of Idiosyncratic Income," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-026, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. J. Carter Braxton & Kyle Herkenhoff & Jonathan Rothbaum & Lawrence Schmidt, 2025. "Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(12), pages 4438-4475, December.
    11. Søren Leth‐Petersen & Johan Sæverud, 2022. "Inequality and dynamics of earnings and disposable income in Denmark 1987–2016," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1493-1526, November.
    12. Robert Kirkby, 2025. "Discretizing earnings dynamics: implications of Gaussian-mixture shocks for life-cycle models," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 76(2), pages 493-519, April.
    13. Elin Halvorsen & Hans A Holter & Serdar Ozkan & Kjetil Storesletten, 2024. "Dissecting Idiosyncratic Earnings Risk," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 22(2), pages 617-668.
    14. Martin E. Andresen & Andreas R. Kostøl & Ross T. Milton & Corina Mommaerts & Luisa Wallossek, 2025. "Monthly Earnings Volatility and Household Pooling," NBER Working Papers 34563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Sagiri KITAO & Michio SUZUKI & Tomoaki YAMADA, 2025. "Nonlinear Earnings Dynamics and Inequality over the Life Cycle: Evidence from Japanese Municipal Tax Records," Discussion papers 25081, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    16. Manuel Arellano & Stéphane Bonhomme & Micole De Vera & Laura Hospido & Siqi Wei, 2022. "Income risk inequality: Evidence from Spanish administrative records," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 13(4), pages 1747-1801, November.
    17. Ana Sofia Pessoa, 2021. "Earnings Dynamics in Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 9117, CESifo.
    18. Gizem Koşar & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2025. "Workers’ Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(S1), pages 83-121.
    19. Giulio Fella & Giovanni Gallipoli & Jutong Pan, 2019. "Markov-Chain Approximations for Life-Cycle Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 183-201, October.
    20. Joseph Altonji & Disa Hynsjo & Ivan Vidangos, 2023. "Individual Earnings and Family Income: Dynamics and Distribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 225-250, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17568. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Fallak (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaalu.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.