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Nonlinear Household Earnings Dynamics, Self-Insurance, and Welfare

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  • Mariacristina De Nardi
  • Giulio Fella
  • Gonzalo Paz-Pardo

Abstract

Earnings dynamics are much richer than typically assumed in macro models with heterogeneous agents. This holds for individual-pre-tax and household-post-tax earnings and across administrative and survey data. We estimate two alternative processes for household after-tax earnings and study their implications using a standard life-cycle model. Both processes feature a persistent and a transitory component, but although the first one is the canonical linear process with stationary shocks, the second one has substantially richer earnings dynamics, allowing for age-dependence of moments, non-normality, and nonlinearity in previous earnings and age. Allowing for richer earnings dynamics implies a substantially better fit of the evolution of cross-sectional consumption inequality over the life cycle and of the individual-level degree of consumption insurance against persistent earnings shocks. The richer earnings process implies lower welfare costs of earnings risk.

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  • Mariacristina De Nardi & Giulio Fella & Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, 2020. "Nonlinear Household Earnings Dynamics, Self-Insurance, and Welfare," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 890-926.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:18:y:2020:i:2:p:890-926.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeea/jvz010
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    1. Nonlinear household earnings dynamics, self-insurance, and welfare
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2018-07-31 13:51:19

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    Cited by:

    1. De Giorgi, Giacomo & Gambetti, Luca & Naguib, Costanza, 2020. "Life-cycle inequality: Blacks and whites differentials in life expectancy, savings, income, and consumption," CEPR Discussion Papers 15182, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Giulio Fella & Serafin Frache & Winfried Koeniger, 2020. "Buffer‐Stock Saving And Households' Response To Income Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1359-1382, August.
    3. Amengual, D.; Bueren, J.; Crego, J.A.;, 2017. "Endogenous Health Groups and Heterogeneous Dynamics of the Elderly," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 17/18, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    4. Peter Ganong & Damon Jones & Pascal Noel & Diana Farrell & Fiona Greig & Chris Wheat, 2020. "Wealth, Race, and Consumption Smoothing of Typical Income Shocks," Working Papers 2020-49, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    5. Giovanni Gallipoli & Brant Abbott, 2017. ""Permanent Income" Inequality," 2017 Meeting Papers 1033, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Francesco Lancia & Alessia Russo & Tim Worrall, 2020. "Optimal Sustainable Intergenerational Insurance," Edinburgh School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 300, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
    7. De Nardi, Mariacristina & Fella, Giulio & Knoef, Marike & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo & Van Ooijen, Raun, 2021. "Family and government insurance: Wage, earnings, and income risks in the Netherlands and the U.S," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    8. de Bresser, Jochem, 2019. "The Role of Heterogeneous Expectations in Life Cycle Models : Evaluating the Accuracy of Counterfactuals," Other publications TiSEM 25d04a47-1020-47eb-ba94-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Giulio Fella & Giovanni Gallipoli & Jutong Pan, 2019. "Markov-Chain Approximations for Life-Cycle Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 183-201, October.
    10. Ursula Mello & Tomas Rodriguez Martinez, 2020. "Trade-induced Local Labor Market Shocks and Asymmetrical Labor Income Risk," Working Papers 1230, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    11. Gomes, Diego B.P. & Iachan, Felipe S. & Santos, Cezar, 2020. "Labor earnings dynamics in a developing economy with a large informal sector," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    12. Giulio Fella & Serafin Frache & Winfried Koeniger, 2020. "Buffer‐Stock Saving And Households' Response To Income Shocks," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1359-1382, August.
    13. Manuel Sanchez & Felix Wellschmied, 2020. "Modeling Life-Cycle Earnings Risk with Positive and Negative Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 103-126, July.
    14. De Nardi, Mariacristina & Fella, Giulio & Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo, 2020. "Wage Risk and Government and Spousal Insurance," CEPR Discussion Papers 15608, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Heejeong Kim, . "Education, Wage Dynamics, and Wealth Inequality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Alessandro Di Nola & Georgi Kocharkov & Almuth Scholl & Anna-Mariia Tkhir, 2021. "The Aggregate Consequences of Tax Evasion," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 40, pages 198-227, April.
    17. Juan Carlos Conesa & Bo Li & Qian Li, 2020. "Universal Basic Income and Progressive Consumption Taxes," Department of Economics Working Papers 20-01, Stony Brook University, Department of Economics.
    18. Seth Pruitt & Nicholas Turner, 2018. "The Nature of Household Labor Income Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-034, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Dal Bianco, Chiara & Maura, Francesco, 2020. "Education and persistence of earnings shocks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    20. Atif Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2020. "The Saving Glut of the Rich and the Rise in Household Debt," CESifo Working Paper Series 8201, CESifo.
    21. Atif R. Mian & Ludwig Straub & Amir Sufi, 2020. "The Saving Glut of the Rich," NBER Working Papers 26941, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Wataru Kureishi & Hannah Paule-Paludkiewicz & Hitoshi Tsujiyama & Midori Wakabayashi, 2021. "Time Preferences over the Life Cycle and Household Saving Puzzles," CESifo Working Paper Series 8935, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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