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Higher-order income risk over the business cycle

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  • Busch, Christopher
  • Ludwig, Alexander

Abstract

We extend the canonical income process with persistent and tran- sitory risk to cyclical shock distributions with left-skewness and excess kurtosis. We estimate our income process by GMM for US household data. We find countercyclical variance and procyclical skewness of per- sistent shocks. All shock distributions are highly leptokurtic. The tax and transfer system reduces dispersion and left-skewness. We then show that in a standard incomplete-markets life-cycle model, first, higher- order risk has sizable welfare implications, which depend on risk atti- tudes; second, it matters quantitatively for the welfare costs of cyclical idiosyncratic risk; third, it has non-trivial implications for self-insurance against shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Busch, Christopher & Ludwig, Alexander, 2021. "Higher-order income risk over the business cycle," ICIR Working Paper Series 36/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:icirwp:3621
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ebert, Sebastian, 2015. "On skewed risks in economic models and experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 85-97.
    2. Su, Steve, 2007. "Numerical maximum log likelihood estimation for generalized lambda distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 3983-3998, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Busch & David Domeij & Fatih Guvenen & Rocio Madera, 2022. "Skewed Idiosyncratic Income Risk over the Business Cycle: Sources and Insurance," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 207-242, April.
    2. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Dirk Krueger & André Kurmann & Etienne Lalé & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2023. "The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 35-98, March.
    3. Püschel, Veronika & Kindermann, Fabian, 2023. "Progressive Pensions as an Incentive for Labor Force Participation," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277643, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Nicola Fuchs-Schünde & Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2022. "The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(645), pages 1647-1683.
    5. Kindermann, Fabian & Pueschel, Veronika, 2021. "Progressive Pensions as an Incentive for Labor Force Participation," CEPR Discussion Papers 16380, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Ghosh, Anisha & Theloudis, Alexandros, 2023. "Consumption Partial Insurance in the Presence of Tail Income Risk," Other publications TiSEM c8da0a17-57cb-40bf-ab61-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Idiosyncratic Income Risk; Cyclical Income Risk; Life-Cycle Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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