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Does Consumption Respond to Transitory Shocks? Reconciling Natural Experiments and Semistructural Methods

Author

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  • Jeanne Commault

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Studies based on natural experiments find that consumption responds strongly and significantly to a transitory variation in income, while semistructural estimations find no pass-through of transitory shocks to consumption. I develop a more robust semistructural estimator that relaxes the assumption that log consumption is a random walk. The robust pass-through estimate is significant and large, implying a yearly marginal propensity to consume of 0.32, close to the natural experiment findings. The robust estimator performs well in numerical simulations of a life cycle model, while nonrobust estimators do not. The difference between the two in the simulations is similar to their difference in the survey data.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeanne Commault, 2022. "Does Consumption Respond to Transitory Shocks? Reconciling Natural Experiments and Semistructural Methods," Post-Print hal-03947994, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03947994
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20190296
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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni L. Violante & Greg Kaplan, 2022. "The Marginal Propensity to Consume in Heterogeneous Agent Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 747-775, August.
    2. Crawley, Edmund & Theloudis, Alexandros, 2024. "Income Shocks and their Transmission into Consumption," Discussion Paper 2024-012, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Krueger, Dirk & Malkov, Egor & Perri, Fabrizio, 2024. "How do households respond to income shocks?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Krueger, Dirk & Malkov, Egor & Perri, Fabrizio, 2024. "Reprint of: How do households respond to income shocks?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    5. Roberto Tamborini, 2023. "Inflation surprises in a New Keynesian economy with a true consumption function. The Eurozone as an inflation target zone," DEM Working Papers 2023/1, Department of Economics and Management.
    6. Thomas F. Crossley & Paul Fisher & Peter Levell & Hamish Low, 2025. "Eliciting the marginal propensity to consume in surveys," IFS Working Papers W25/25, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    7. Bilbiie, F. O. & Galaasen, S. M. & Gurkaynak, R. S. & Maehlum, M. & Molnar, K, 2025. "Hanksson," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2516, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Gizem Koşar & Davide Melcangi & Laura Pilossoph & David Wiczer, 2023. "Stimulus through Insurance: The Marginal Propensity to Repay Debt," Staff Reports 1065, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Pesce, Simone & Zhang, Liang, 2025. "Mortgage refinancing and the marginal propensity to consume," Working Paper Series 3051, European Central Bank.
    10. Dirk Krueger & Egor Malkov & Fabrizio Perri, 2023. "How Do Households Respond to Income Shocks?," Staff Report 655, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. Richard Blundell & Margherita Borella & Jeanne Commault & Mariacristina De Nardi, 2024. "Old Age Risks, Consumption, and Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(2), pages 575-613, February.
    12. Charles Grant, 2025. "A new investigation into whether households are excessively sensitive to predictable changes in income," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 237-252, January.
    13. Yunho Cho & James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2024. "Did marginal propensities to consume change with the housing boom and bust?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 174-199, January.
    14. Ghosh, Anisha & Theloudis, Alexandros, 2023. "Consumption Partial Insurance in the Presence of Tail Income Risk," Other publications TiSEM c8da0a17-57cb-40bf-ab61-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Roberto Tamborini, 2024. "Inflation surprises in a New Keynesian economy with a “true” consumption function," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(3), pages 1192-1215, July.
    16. Pedroni, Marcelo & Singh, Swapnil & Stoltenberg, Christian A., 2025. "Advance information and consumption insurance: Evidence and structural estimation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    17. Christopher Busch & Alexander Ludwig, 2024. "Higher‐Order Income Risk Over The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1105-1131, August.
    18. Stéphane Dupraz, 2023. "The Dynamic IS Curve when there is both Investment and Savings," Working papers 905, Banque de France.
    19. Miranda-Pinto, Jorge & Murphy, Daniel & Walsh, Kieran James & Young, Eric R., 2025. "A model of expenditure shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    20. Bilbiie, F. O. & Galaasen, S. M. & Gurkaynak, R. S. & Maehlum, M. & Molnar, K, 2025. "Hanksson," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2516, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    21. Ignacio Belloc & Pierre-André Chiappori & José Alberto Molina & Jorge Velilla, 2025. "Effects of wage shocks and saving changes on leisure time: The role of dynamic intra-household commitment," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 1099, Boston College Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D15 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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