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Did Marginal Propensities to Consume Change with the Housing Boom and Bust?

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  • Yunho Cho
  • James Morley
  • Aarti Singh

Abstract

We extend a widely-used semi-structural model to identify and estimate dynamic consumption elasticities with respect to transitory income shocks. Applying our model to household survey data, we find a structural break in marginal propensities to consume following the end of the housing market boom, with the average across households increasing significantly. Our results suggest important heterogeneity by different household balance sheet characteristics and that the increase in the average was driven by higher short-run consumption elasticities for homeowners with low liquid wealth. The change in consumption behavior appears to be related to tighter borrowing constraints more than a shift in wealth distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Yunho Cho & James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2023. "Did Marginal Propensities to Consume Change with the Housing Boom and Bust?," CAMA Working Papers 2023-32, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2023-32
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    marginal propensity to consume; Great Recession; consumption insurance; liquid wealth; house prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance

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