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Workers’ Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Gizem Koşar
  • Wilbert van der Klaauw

Abstract

In addition to realized earnings and employment shocks, forward-looking individuals are presumed to condition their consumption and labor supply decisions on their subjective beliefs about future labor market risks. This paper uses rich panel data to document considerable individual heterogeneity in earnings growth expectations and in the perceived likelihood of voluntary and involuntary job exits. We examine how expectations evolve over the working life and business cycle and how they covary with macroeconomic expectations and personal experiences. While largely consistent with patterns in realized outcomes, our findings highlight the unanticipated nature of the pandemic recession and the ensuing resignation wave.

Suggested Citation

  • Gizem Koşar & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2025. "Workers’ Perceptions of Earnings Growth and Employment Risk," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(S1), pages 83-121.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jlabec:doi:10.1086/734088
    DOI: 10.1086/734088
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    Cited by:

    1. Manuel Arellano & Orazio Attanasio & Margherita Borella & Mariacristina De Nardi & Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, 2026. "Subjective Earnings and Employment Dynamics," Working Papers wp2026_2605, CEMFI.
    2. Marianna Kudlyak & Brandon E. Miskanic, 2024. "Consumer and Firm Perceptions of the Aggregate Labor Market Conditions," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2024(28), pages 1-20, August.
    3. Kathrin Ellieroth & Amanda M. Michaud, 2024. "Quits, Layoffs, and Labor Supply," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 094, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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